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Probabilistic risk assessment in small airplanes.

机译：小型飞机的概率风险评估。

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摘要

The objective of this research was to develop a comprehensive probabilistic methodology such that Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) engineers can conduct a risk assessment of a General Aviation structural issue in support of policy decisions.;After some wing fatigue cracks were found in the fleet of twin Cessnas, the FAA started to be concerned about this unsafe condition and therefore advised a risk assessment. A risk assessment of the continued operational safety of the General Aviation fleet can provide important insight to the criticality and severity of a potentially serious structural issue. As such, the methodology to address risk assessment and risk management of General Aviation structural issues is needed. This information will provide an approach to enable a nonbiased review of data to assure airworthiness.;This work aimed to examine the different components, including airplane-to-airplane and flight-to-flight variations to develop a probabilistic methodology that can perform risk assessment in small airplanes. Requisite supporting technology and data issues were investigated. In particular, probability distributions of relevant inputs were developed so that a realistic risk assessment could be obtained. Representative sensitivity studies were also executed in order to demonstrate and validate the methodology.;After developing a deterministic code using Fortran, the number of flights-to-failure was evaluated for two different case studies: single engine unpressurization basic instructional usage and single engine unpressurization aerobatic usage, the last one presenting a more severe usage.;Using a probabilistic code written in Fortran and Monte Carlo sampling, a statistical representation of the flights-to-failure was developed. These statistics were then post-processed to determine a probability distribution function, cumulative distribution function, and survival function of aircraft life. Qualitative and quantitative evaluations of different variables involved in the model were performed. Results showed that variables such as Sink Rate does not play an important role on fatigue evaluation and further investigation in this variable would not be necessary; however, variables as Flight Duration, Miner's Coefficient, and Gust and Maneuver loading are important to the problem. Correlation factors and stepwise linear regression supported the importance of the different variables in the problem. Finally using linear regression, a predictive model (response surface) was developed to calculate flights-to-failure. Another linear regression model was developed for early failures with better correlation. Statistics about the goodness of these models was developed.
机译：这项研究的目的是开发一种综合的概率方法，以便联邦航空局（FAA）工程师可以对通用航空结构问题进行风险评估，以支持政策决策。由于是双胞胎塞斯纳斯（Cessnas），联邦航空局（FAA）开始担心这种不安全状况，因此建议进行风险评估。对通用航空机队的持续运行安全性进行风险评估，可以为潜在的严重结构性问题的严重性和严重性提供重要的见识。因此，需要用于解决通用航空结构性问题的风险评估和风险管理的方法。该信息将提供一种使数据能够进行无偏见审查以确保适航性的方法。这项工作旨在检查不同的组成部分，包括飞机到飞机和飞行到飞机的变化，以开发可以进行风险评估的概率方法在小型飞机上。调查了必要的支持技术和数据问题。特别是，开发了相关输入的概率分布，以便可以获得实际的风险评估。为了演示和验证该方法，还进行了代表性敏感性研究。在使用Fortran开发确定性代码后，针对两种不同的案例研究评估了失败飞行的次数：单引擎降压基本教学用法和单引擎降压特技飞行使用，最后一个使用更为严格。；使用以Fortran和Monte Carlo采样编写的概率代码，开发了飞行失败的统计表示。然后对这些统计数据进行后处理，以确定飞机寿命的概率分布函数，累积分布函数和生存函数。对模型中涉及的不同变量进行了定性和定量评估。结果表明，下沉率等变量在疲劳评估中不发挥重要作用，因此无需进一步研究该变量；但是，诸如飞行持续时间，矿工系数以及阵风和机动负荷等变量对于该问题很重要。相关因子和逐步线性回归支持了问题中不同变量的重要性。最后，使用线性回归，开发了一个预测模型（响应面）来计算飞行失败的次数。为早期故障开发了另一个线性回归模型，具有更好的相关性。开发了关于这些模型的优劣的统计数据。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ocampo, Juan David.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Texas at San Antonio.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Texas at San Antonio.;
  • 学科 Engineering Aerospace.;Engineering Mechanical.
  • 学位 M.S.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 107 p.
  • 总页数 107
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 航空、航天技术的研究与探索;机械、仪表工业;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:38:04

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