• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Exploring the Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Assessment Using the Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) Approach
【24h】

Exploring the Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Assessment Using the Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) Approach

机译：使用综合概率风险评估（IPRA）方法探索癌症风险评估中的不确定性

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates.
机译：当前用于癌症风险评估的方法产生单一值，而没有关于这些值不确定性的任何定量信息。因此，单一风险值很容易被过度解释。在这项研究中，我们讨论了一种完整的概率性癌症风险评估方法，其中对暴露和危害评估中所有公认的不确定性进行定量表征和概率评估，从而得出最终风险估计的置信区间。该方法适用于三种示例化学品（黄曲霉毒素，N-亚硝基二甲胺和甲基丁子香酚）。这些示例说明，癌症风险估计中的不确定性可能很大，从而使癌症风险的单值估计毫无意义。此外，基于线性外推的风险往往低于概率风险估计的95％置信上限，从这个意义上讲，这并不保守。我们的概念分析表明，根据对动物体内测得的剂量发生数据的解释，有两种可能的基本方法可用于癌症风险评估。然而，目前尚不清楚这两种解释中哪一种更为合适，这给本已巨大的癌症风险估计置信区间增加了额外的不确定性。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号