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Deterministic and stochastic metapopulation models for dengue fever.

机译:登革热的确定性和随机种群模型。

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摘要

A spatial temporal data set of dengue in Peru from 1994-2008 was made available to us by the Ministry of Health of Peru and the analyses of its spatio-temporal patterns motivated the work in this dissertation. We found that aggregated reported data masked the spatio-temporal patterns of dengue over this window in time. A series of models are presented in this dissertation in order to identify mechanisms that capture observed patterns. We have in fact identified a framework capable of capturing dengue outbreaks in Peru. Deterministic and stochastic single and two-patch models are introduced and some of their properties identified via some mathematical analyses complemented with extensive simulations. We find that the asymptotics of the mean field model (final size epidemic), while useful, mask critical details that are central to control and public health policies. We introduce a stochastic migration model that allows us to construct a family of distributions of time T, which the first infected individual leaves the "home" patch, and estimate the variance along the CDF. A two patch model, where each person has a positive probability of being in a patch alternate to his home location, shows the effect coupling coefficients will have on the time between the epidemic peaks. The inclusion of seasonality and human demographics to the two patch model leads to reoccurring outbreaks, as seen in the data. The two approaches of modeling migration, though different mathematically, complement each other in explaining what factors affect the spread of dengue. Finally, optimal control methods are incorporated into our models. We consider what strategy should be used if the objective is to minimize the total number of infected individuals, at a minimal cost, during a fixed time interval. When control is applied to a patch with the basic reproductive number R0 below a certain threshold, it effectively stops the epidemic. Also, control will delay the spread of dengue from one patch to another.
机译:秘鲁卫生部向我们提供了1994年至2008年秘鲁登革热的时空数据集,其时空分布模式的分析激发了本论文的工作。我们发现汇总的报告数据掩盖了该窗口在时间上的登革热的时空格局。本文提出了一系列的模型,以识别捕获观察到的模式的机制。实际上,我们已经确定了一个能够捕获秘鲁登革热暴发的框架。介绍了确定性和随机性的单修补程序和两修补程序模型,并通过一些数学分析和大量的模拟来识别它们的某些属性。我们发现,平均场模型(最终流行病)的渐进性虽然有用,却掩盖了对于控制和公共卫生政策至关重要的关键细节。我们引入了一种随机迁移模型,该模型允许我们构造时间分布T的族,第一个受感染的个体会离开该时间,并估计CDF的方差。两个人补丁模型(每个人都有可能出现在其家乡所在地的补丁中)的可能性很大,该模型显示耦合系数将对流行病高峰之间的时间产生影响。如数据所示,在两个补丁模型中包含季节性和人口统计特征会导致再次爆发。对迁移进行建模的两种方法尽管在数学上有所不同,但在解释哪些因素影响登革热扩散方面相互补充。最后,将最佳控制方法纳入我们的模型。如果目标是在固定的时间间隔内以最小的成本使感染个体的总数最小化,我们将考虑采用哪种策略。当将控制应用于基本生殖数R0低于某个阈值的贴片时,它可以有效地阻止流行病。同样,控制将延迟登革热从一个斑块到另一个斑块的扩散。

著录项

  • 作者

    Torre, Carlos Alan.;

  • 作者单位

    Arizona State University.;

  • 授予单位 Arizona State University.;
  • 学科 Applied Mathematics.;Health Sciences Epidemiology.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 99 p.
  • 总页数 99
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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