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Trading risk and performance for engineering design optimization using multifidelity analyses.

机译:使用多保真度分析为工程设计优化交易风险和性能。

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Computers pervade our lives today: from communication to calculation, their influence percolates many spheres of our existence. With continuing advances in computing, simulations are becoming increasingly complex and accurate. Powerful high-fidelity simulations mimic and predict a variety of real-life scenarios, with applications ranging from entertainment to engineering. The most accurate of such engineering simulations come at a high cost in terms of computing resources and time. Engineers use such simulations to predict the real-world performance of products they design; that is, they use them for analysis. Needless to say, the emphasis is on accuracy of the prediction. For such analysis, one would like to use the most accurate simulation available, and such a simulation is likely to be at the limits of available computing power, quite independently of advances in computing.;In engineering design, however, the goal is somewhat different. Engineering design is generally posed as an optimization problem, where the goal is to tweak a set of available inputs or parameters, called design variables, to create a design that is optimal in some way, and meets some preset requirements. In other words, we would like modify the design variables in order to optimize some figure of merit, called an objective function, subject to a set of constraints, typically formulated as equations or inequalities to be satisfied. Typically, a complex engineering system such as an aircraft is described by thousands of design variables, all of which are optimized during the design process. Nevertheless, do we always need to use the highest-fidelity simulations as the objective function and constraints for engineering design? Or can we afford to use lower-fidelity simulations with appropriate corrections?;In this thesis, we present a new methodology for surrogate-based optimization. Existing methods combine the possibility erroneous predictions of the low-fidelity surrogate with estimates of the error in those predictions, to synthesis a figure of promise. In contrast, we propose treating those predictions, and the concomitant uncertainties in them, as independent quantities encapsulating the conflicting objectives of seeking designs with good performance and low risk. We then use multiobjective optimization methods to optimize these objectives simultaneously, in order to answer the question of what designs we will evaluate next using the high-fidelity analysis. We show that this approach renders the design process robust to modeling errors and parameters. In addition, our method generates multiple candidate designs at the end of every search for promising designs. In spite of this, the new search method is no more expensive than existing methods. Moreover, this set of promising designs offers a way to examine various interesting regions of the design space, and this ability suggests a useful visualization and diagnostic tool.;We present numerical experiments that compare our method against existing techniques on both analytic test problems as well as applications in aerodynamics. In all cases, we find that performance is better than that of the best existing methods in terms of both robustness and efficiency.
机译:如今,计算机席卷了我们的生活:从通讯到计算,它们的影响遍及我们生存的许多领域。随着计算的不断进步,仿真变得越来越复杂和准确。强大的高保真模拟可模拟和预测各种现实生活场景,其应用范围从娱乐到工程。在计算资源和时间方面,最精确的此类工程仿真成本很高。工程师使用这种模拟来预测他们设计的产品的实际性能。也就是说,他们使用它们进行分析。不用说,重点在于预测的准确性。对于这种分析,人们想使用现有的最精确的模拟,并且这种模拟很可能会受到可用计算能力的限制,而与计算的进展完全无关。但是,在工程设计中,目标有些不同。 。工程设计通常被认为是一个优化问题,目标是调整一组可用的输入或参数(称为设计变量),以创建以某种方式最佳并满足一些预设要求的设计。换句话说,我们希望修改设计变量,以优化一些称为目标函数的品质因数,该品质因数受一组约束的约束,这些约束通常被公式化为要满足的方程或不等式。通常,复杂的工程系统(例如飞机)由数千个设计变量来描述,所有这些变量在设计过程中都经过了优化。但是,我们是否始终需要将最高保真度的仿真用作工程设计的目标函数和约束条件?还是我们可以负担得起使用经过适当校正的低保真度模拟?;在本文中,我们提出了一种新的基于代理的优化方法。现有方法将低保真替代品的可能性错误预测与这些预测中的误差估计相结合,以合成期望值。相反,我们建议将这些预测及其伴随的不确定性作为独立的数量来处理,这些数量封装了寻求具有良好性能和低风险的设计的相互冲突的目标。然后,我们使用多目标优化方法同时优化这些目标,以回答我们将使用高保真度分析接下来评估哪些设计的问题。我们证明了这种方法使设计过程对建模误差和参数具有鲁棒性。此外,我们的方法会在每次搜索有希望的设计结束时生成多个候选设计。尽管如此,新的搜索方法并不比现有方法昂贵。此外,这套有前途的设计提供了一种检查设计空间中各个有趣区域的方法,并且这种能力提出了一种有用的可视化和诊断工具。;我们提出了数值实验,将我们的方法与现有技术在分析测试问题上也进行了比较作为空气动力学的应用。在所有情况下,我们都发现在鲁棒性和效率方面,性能要优于现有最佳方法。

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