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A proposed method to determine confidence in a construction schedule.

机译：一种确定施工进度信心的方法。

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摘要

Construction is uncertain, and so too are the schedules used to manage them. Most view uncertainty as an exercise of probability theory. The flaw in this approach is the presumption that all uncertainty is the result of natural variability, even when the source of uncertainty is non-specificity, uncertainty due to judgment, or vagueness. How can a project manager recognize the non-traditional types of uncertainties that might be present in a construction schedule? How does one quantify the different types of uncertainties in a schedule? Researchers have offered new scheduling techniques recognizing that epistemic uncertainties exist, but none have attempted to quantify in a single number all the uncertainties that might be present. Through a series of thought experiments, techniques are offered here to allow one to not only recognize various uncertainties in a schedule but also how to individually quantify them. To verify the issues that plague construction and cause delays, interviews were conducted with commercial contractors to verify typical problem areas. A technique using non-square matrices and singular value decomposition was developed to combine all the uncertainties present and assign a single number, the Total Uncertainty, to the schedule. Two approaches were tested, one that examined each activity on the schedule's critical path, and the other that looked at the project as a whole. Both methods were tested at the boundary conditions of zero and maximum uncertainty with satisfying results. By itself, Total Uncertainty does not provide added value, however relative uncertainty does. By calculating maximum uncertainty and actual uncertainty, it is possible to calculate confidence. These techniques offer a project manager a tool for determining the "goodness", though not necessarily the accuracy, of his construction schedule, and the confidence one should have as a result.
机译：建设是不确定的，管理它们的时间表也不确定。大多数人将不确定性视为概率论的一种实践。这种方法的缺陷在于，所有不确定性都是自然可变性的结果，即使不确定性的来源是非特异性，由于判断引起的不确定性或模糊性。项目经理如何识别施工进度表中可能存在的非传统不确定性？如何量化时间表中不同类型的不确定性？研究人员提供了新的调度技术，认识到存在认识上的不确定性，但没有人试图将可能存在的所有不确定性以单个数量进行量化。通过一系列的思想实验，这里提供了一些技术，使人们不仅可以识别时间表中的各种不确定性，而且还可以单独量化它们。为了验证困扰施工和造成延误的问题，与商业承包商进行了访谈以验证典型的问题区域。开发了一种使用非平方矩阵和奇异值分解的技术来组合所有存在的不确定性，并为计划表分配一个数字，即总不确定性。测试了两种方法，一种方法检查了时间表的关键路径上的每个活动，另一种方法则从整体上考察了项目。两种方法均在零和最大不确定度的边界条件下进行了测试，结果令人满意。完全不确定性本身不能提供附加值，但是相对不确定性却可以提供。通过计算最大不确定度和实际不确定度，可以计算置信度。这些技术为项目经理提供了一种工具，用于确定施工进度的“优劣”（但不一定是准确性），从而确定项目的信心。

著录项

  • 作者

    Phillips, Homer Clay.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of New Mexico.;

  • 授予单位 The University of New Mexico.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 186 p.
  • 总页数 186
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;
  • 关键词

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