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Offshore production, labor migration and the macroeconomy.

机译:离岸生产,劳务移民和宏观经济。

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摘要

In my doctoral dissertation, I examine theoretical and empirical questions related to the international macroeconomic effects of offshore production, labor migration and remittances.;In Chapter 1, "Offshore Production and Business Cycle Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," I analyze the cross-country transmission of business cycles when firms relocate production abroad at locations with relatively lower labor costs, an action which I refer to as offshoring. In the model, I distinguish between fluctuations in the number of firms producing offshore (the extensive margin) and the value added per offshoring firm (the intensive margin) as separate transmission mechanisms. Firms are heterogeneous in labor productivity; they face a sunk entry cost in the domestic market and an additional fixed cost to produce offshore. The incentive to relocate production abroad increases with the difference between the domestic and foreign cost of effective labor, and with firm-specific productivity. The key results are: (1) The model replicates the procyclical pattern of offshoring, as well as the extensive and intensive margin dynamics that I document using data from Mexico's maquiladora sector; (2) Offshoring enhances the co-movement of output between the countries involved; and (3) Offshoring reduces price dispersion across countries, because it dampens the real exchange rate appreciation that follows a productivity increase in the parent country.;In Chapter 2, "Offshore Production to Mexico: The Intensive and Extensive Margin Responses to U.S. Technology Shocks," I estimate the conditional correlations and impulse responses of three indicators of offshoring to Mexico (total value added, value added per plant, and the number of plants) associated with U.S. permanent technology shocks. Using data from U.S. manufacturing and Mexico's maquiladora sector, I identify U.S. permanent technology shocks in an open-economy, structural VAR model with long-run restrictions. I find that: (1) Offshore production in Mexico exhibits an immediate increase along its intensive margin (value added per plant) in response to a positive U.S. technology shock, but returns to its initial level over time. In contrast, the extensive margin (the number of plants) does not adjust on impact, but increases gradually over time and stabilizes at a permanently higher level. (2) In the presence of country-specific technology shocks, the model of offshoring with heterogeneous firms in Chapter 1 matches qualitatively the business cycle dynamics of offshoring from the U.S. to Mexico.;In Chapter 3, "Immigration and the Macroeconomy" (co-authored with Federico Mandelman), we analyze the dynamics of labor migration and the insurance role of remittances in a two-country, real business cycle framework. Emigration increases with the expected stream of future wage gains, and is dampened by the sunk cost reflecting the intensity of border enforcement. During booms in the destination economy, the scarcity of established immigrants lessens capital accumulation, and enhances the volatility of the immigrant wage and remittances. The welfare gain from the inflow of unskilled labor increases with the complementarity between skilled and unskilled labor, and with the share of the skilled among native labor. The model matches the cyclical dynamics of both the unskilled immigration into the U.S. and remittances sent back to Mexico.
机译:在我的博士论文中,我研究了与离岸生产,劳动力迁移和汇款的国际宏观经济效应有关的理论和经验问题。;在第1章“具有异构公司的离岸生产和商业周期动态”中,我分析了跨国转移企业将生产转移到劳动力成本相对较低的地方到国外的商业周期的数量,我称之为离岸外包。在模型中,我将离岸生产的公司数量的波动(广泛的利润)和每个离岸公司的增加值(密集的利润)作为独立的传导机制进行了区分。企业的劳动生产率是不同的。他们在国内市场面临沉没的进入成本,以及在海上生产的额外固定成本。将生产转移到国外的动机随着国内外有效劳动成本之间的差异以及企业特定的生产率而增加。主要结果是:(1)该模型复制了离岸外包的顺周期模式,以及我使用墨西哥的加工厂生产部门的数据记录的广泛而密集的利润率动态; (2)离岸外包促进了有关国家之间产出的共同转移; (3)离岸贸易减少了各国之间的价格差异,因为它抑制了母国生产率提高后的实际汇率升值。;在第2章,“墨西哥的离岸生产:对美国技术冲击的密集和广泛的利润反应”,我估计了与美国永久性技术冲击相关的墨西哥离岸外包的三个指标(总增加值,每家工厂的增加值和工厂的数量)的条件相关性和冲激响应。我使用来自美国制造业和墨西哥加工厂的数据,在具有长期限制的开放经济,结构化VAR模型中确定了美国永久性技术冲击。我发现:(1)为应对美国积极的技术冲击,墨西哥的离岸生产沿集约化利润率(每家工厂的附加值)立即增长,但随着时间的流逝又恢复到初始水平。相反,广泛的边际(植物数量)不会根据影响进行调整,而是随着时间的推移逐渐增加,并稳定在永久更高的水平上。 (2)在存在针对特定国家的技术冲击的情况下,第1章中与异类公司的离岸外包模型定性地匹配了从美国到墨西哥的离岸外包的商业周期动态;在第3章“移民与宏观经济”中(由Federico Mandelman撰写),我们在两个国家的真实商业周期框架中分析了劳动力迁移的动态以及汇款的保险作用。移民随着未来工资增长的预期流而增加,并因反映边境执法强度的沉没成本而受到抑制。在目的地经济繁荣时期,成熟移民的稀缺减少了资本积累,并增加了移民工资和汇款的波动性。非熟练劳动力的流入所带来的福利收益随着熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间的互补性以及熟练工人在本地劳动力中所占的份额而增加。该模型与非熟练移民到美国和汇回墨西哥的汇款的周期性动态相匹配。

著录项

  • 作者

    Zlate, Andrei.;

  • 作者单位

    Boston College.;

  • 授予单位 Boston College.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Economics Commerce-Business.;Economics Labor.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 184 p.
  • 总页数 184
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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