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Exchange rate change, the trade balance and output growth in developing countries: Evidence from the CFA Franc Zone.

机译：发展中国家的汇率变化，贸易平衡和产出增长：来自非洲金融共同体法郎区的证据。

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摘要

This dissertation is an empirical study of the effects of exchange rate changes on economic activities in the CFA Franc Zone. Specifically, this study uses three econometric methodologies to investigate the responses of the trade balance and output to changes in the exchange rate in the CFA Franc Zone over the period 1980-2005.;First, we use a generalized impulse response function (GIRF) to estimate the effect of exchange rate depreciation on the trade balance of Cote d'Ivoire. Second, a dynamic panel approach is used to estimate the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of thirteen countries of the CFA Franc Zone. Third, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model is employed to estimate the response of output to a shock to the real exchange rate in Cote d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Senegal and Gabon.;The main results show that exchange rate has minimal effects on the trade balance of the CFA Franc when we estimate the whole sample. When we disaggregate the data by region, it is only then the trade balance appears to be sensitive to exchange rate change; a case where the trade balance of the WAEMU region tends to be more sensitive than that of the CEMAC region. The results also show that the trade balance of Cote d'Ivoire describes a delayed J-curve, one that is inconsistent with the classic J-curve phenomenon. Finally, output in Cameroon and Gabon shows a significant contemporaneous decline while it does not significantly respond to a shock to the real exchange rate in Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal, thus providing support to the views that the effects of exchange rate on output in developing countries may be negative in the short run while neutral in the long run. The study also focuses on the reasons for the short run decline and the overall insensitivity. These findings suggest that policymakers of the CFA Franc Zone should be cautious about using exchange rate policy as a recovery effort, and that alternative policies may be sought for their growth agenda.
机译：本文是对汇率变动对非洲金融共同体法郎区经济活动影响的实证研究。具体而言，本研究使用三种计量经济学方法研究了1980-2005年期间非洲金融共同体法郎区贸易余额和产出对汇率变化的响应。首先，我们使用广义脉冲响应函数（GIRF）估计汇率贬值对科特迪瓦贸易差额的影响。其次，使用动态面板方法来估算汇率变化对非洲金融共同体法郎区十三国贸易平衡的影响。第三，采用结构矢量自回归（SVAR）模型估计科特迪瓦，喀麦隆，塞内加尔和加蓬的产出对实际汇率冲击的响应;主要结果表明汇率对实际汇率的影响最小。我们估算整个样本时的非洲金融共同体法郎的贸易差额。当我们按区域对数据进行分类时，只有这样，贸易差额才似乎对汇率变化敏感。 WAEMU地区的贸易平衡往往比CEMAC地区的贸易平衡更为敏感的情况。结果还表明，科特迪瓦的贸易平衡描述了延迟的J曲线，这与经典的J曲线现象不一致。最后，喀麦隆和加蓬的产出显示了同期的显着下降，但并未对科特迪瓦和塞内加尔的实际汇率冲击产生重大反应，从而为以下观点提供了支持：汇率对发展中产出的影响国家从短期看可能是负面的，而从长期来看是中立的。该研究还着眼于短期下降和整体不敏感的原因。这些发现表明，非洲金融共同体法郎区的政策制定者应谨慎对待将汇率政策用作复苏努力，并可能在其增长议程中寻求替代政策。

著录项

  • 作者

    Boumbouya, Raymond K.;

  • 作者单位

    American University.;

  • 授予单位 American University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Economics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 114 p.
  • 总页数 114
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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