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Estimate Freeway Travel Time Reliability Under Recurring and Nonrecurring Congestion

机译：在经常性和非经常性拥堵情况下估算高速公路出行时间的可靠性

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摘要

Travel time and its reliability are considered as intuitive measure of service quality by transportation agencies. Moreover, highly reliable travel times allow for arriving at work or other destinations on time in the context of personal travel and facilitate just-in-time logistics services in freight operations. Travel times are the result of the traffic congestion. By considering different impact factors and shortcoming of the sensing technologies, this dissertation proposed methods for travel time and its reliability estimation.;First of all, this dissertation presented a method to estimate corridor-level travel times based on data collected from roadside radar sensors, considering spatially correlated traffic conditions. Link-level and corridor-level travel time distributions are estimated using these travel time estimates and compared with the ones estimated based on probe vehicle data. The maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of Weibull, gamma, normal, and lognormal distributions. According to the log likelihood values, lognormal distribution is the best fit among all the tested distributions. Corridor-level travel time reliability measures are extracted from the travel time distributions. The proposed travel time estimation model can well capture the temporal pattern of travel time and its distribution.;Second, a travel time reliability measure estimation method is proposed by incorporating standstill distance and time headway distributions in car-following models. The method is based on simplified two-component travel time distribution. By using Monte Carlo simulation, the speed-density region under congested condition and the travel time reliability measures can be generated. The results shows that the speed-density region derived from the steady-state Pipes model encloses most of the field data. Moreover, the proposed method estimate travel time reliability measures more precisely and faster, compared with using VISSIM simulation.;Finally, a work zone travel time estimation approach is proposed in this dissertation. First, the impact of work zone on capacity is investigated. For the work zone capacity prediction framework, the predicted upper bound of capacity is close to the maximum 15-min flow rate. Moreover, based on the predicted capacity, density at capacity and free flow speed, work zone travel times are estimated by using the modified segment speed estimation model from the study of Newman. The estimated travel times roughly followed the pattern of the INRIX travel times. Moreover, the travel time reliability indices are estimated directly from the estimated travel times. The result shows that the travel time reliability indices based on estimated travel times are close to the indices based on INRIX travel times.
机译：运输机构将旅行时间及其可靠性视为服务质量的直观衡量标准。此外，高度可靠的旅行时间允许在个人旅行的情况下准时到达工作地点或其他目的地，并促进货运操作中的及时物流服务。出行时间是交通拥堵的结果。通过考虑不同的影响因素和传感技术的不足，本文提出了行进时间及其可靠性估计的方法。首先，本文提出了一种基于从路边雷达传感器采集的数据估计走廊水平行进时间的方法。考虑与空间相关的交通状况。使用这些行进时间估算值来估算链路级和走廊级行进时间分布，并将其与基于探测车辆数据估算的行进时间分布进行比较。最大似然估计用于估计Weibull，γ，正态和对数正态分布的参数。根据对数似然值，对数正态分布是所有测试分布中最合适的。从旅行时间分布中提取走廊级别的旅行时间可靠性度量。提出的出行时间估计模型可以很好地捕捉出出行时间的时间模式及其分布。其次，提出了一种在行车跟踪模型中结合停顿距离和时程分布的出行时间可靠性测度估计方法。该方法基于简化的两分量旅行时间分布。通过使用蒙特卡洛模拟，可以生成拥挤情况下的速度密度区域和行驶时间可靠性度量。结果表明，从稳态Pipes模型得出的速度密度区域包含了大多数现场数据。此外，与VISSIM仿真相比，本文提出的估计出行时间可靠性的方法更加准确，快速。最后，提出了一种工作区出行时间的估计方法。首先，研究工作区对生产能力的影响。对于工作区容量预测框架，预测的容量上限接近最大15分钟流量。此外，基于预测的容量，容量的密度和自由流动速度，通过使用Newman研究中的改进的线段速度估计模型来估计工作区行进时间。估计的旅行时间大致遵循INRIX旅行时间的模式。此外，直接从估计的旅行时间估计旅行时间可靠性指标。结果表明，基于估计行驶时间的行驶时间可靠性指标接近基于INRIX行驶时间的指标。

著录项

  • 作者

    Lu, Chaoru.;

  • 作者单位

    Iowa State University.;

  • 授予单位 Iowa State University.;
  • 学科 Civil engineering.;Operations research.;Transportation.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2017
  • 页码 147 p.
  • 总页数 147
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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