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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of urban sciences >Estimating freeway route travel time reliability from data on component links and associated cost implications
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Estimating freeway route travel time reliability from data on component links and associated cost implications

机译：根据组件链接上的数据以及相关的成本估算来估算高速公路路线的行驶时间可靠性

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Typically, data on travel time (speed) and traffic volume are collected for relatively short homogenous links of a roadway (e.g. every Vi to 2 miles or 0.8-3.2 km) and not for particular routes from origins to destinations. To accurately estimate a traveller's trip, there is a need to build information on an entire route from data collected at the link level. Because it can be resource-intensive to define specific routes for the entire network of interest, route reliability performance measures are sometimes estimated using a vehicle-miles of travel (VMT)-weighted average of performance indices from links. In performance measurement, travel time index (TTI) is the ratio of average travel time and free-flow travel time while planning time index (PTI) is the ratio of 95th percentile travel time and free-flow travel time. TTI is considered a mobility measure while PTI reflects system reliability. Using indices based on free-flow (uncongested) travel time, this study finds that the VMT-weighting of link indices to get the corresponding route index gives reasonable results for the travel time index (TTI). However, this approach overestimates the planning time index (PTI). This highlights the statistical insufficiency of estimating route PTI values from link PTI values weighted by VMT. It points to the subsequent need to incorporate factors for dispersion and skewness characteristics of travel time distributions on constituent links. This paper introduces a promising method to estimate freeway route reliability considering these dispersion and skewness properties. For statewide Virginia Interstates considered here, economic analyses based on the value of travel time demonstrate that incorrect travel time reliability estimates result in upwards of 200% higher user costs. Researchers anticipate that the information documented in this paper will be useful for those conducting performance monitoring activities to estimate route reliability with limited resources when only link data are available.
机译：通常，针对行进时间相对短的同质链接（例如，每Vi至2英里或0.8-3.2 km）收集行驶时间（速度）和交通量的数据，而不是针对从始发地到目的地的特定路线。为了准确估计旅行者的行程，需要从链接级别收集的数据中，在整个路线上建立信息。由于为整个目标网络定义特定的路线可能会占用大量资源，因此有时会使用来自链接的性能指标的行驶里程（VMT）加权平均值来估计路线可靠性性能指标。在性能测量中，旅行时间指数（TTI）是平均旅行时间与自由流动​​时间的比率，而计划时间指数（PTI）是第95个百分位数旅行时间与自由流动​​时间的比率。 TTI被认为是一种移动性度量，而PTI则反映了系统的可靠性。使用基于自由流动（不受干扰的）旅行时间的指数，本研究发现，链接指数的VMT加权以获得相应的路线指数，可以得出合理的旅行时间指数（TTI）结果。但是，这种方法高估了计划时间指数（PTI）。这突出了从VMT加权的链路PTI值估计路由PTI值的统计不足。它指出了随后需要纳入构成链路上旅行时间分布的离散度和偏度特征的因素。本文介绍了一种有前途的方法，考虑到这些分散性和偏度特性，可以估算高速公路路线的可靠性。对于此处考虑的全州弗吉尼亚州际公路，基于旅行时间价值的经济分析表明，错误的旅行时间可靠性估计会导致用户成本增加200％以上。研究人员预计，当只有链路数据可用时，本文中记录的信息将对那些进行性能监控活动，以有限资源估算路线可靠性的人员有用。

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