为明确宝鸡市气候生产潜力变化特征，以1960～2014年宝鸡市气象站点（站点号：57016）逐日气温和降水量实测值为基础，采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算研究区气候生产潜力，综合运用气候倾向率、累积距平法、Morlet小波函数、Mann－Kendall非参数检验法并结合滑动t检验、Yamamoto分析对其变化特征进行诊断分析。宝鸡市近55年来，平均气候生产潜力为1105．7 kg／（hm2·年），以8．7 kg／（hm2·10年）的速率呈逐年减少趋势并于20世纪90年代发生突变。周期变化呈现出大小尺度相互嵌套，存在准13、22、28、32年的变化周期。降水是影响研究区气候生产潜力发展的主导限制因素，增湿和增温的气候条件均有利于气候生产潜力的增加，暖湿化的气候情景则最有利于农作物的生长。%In order to make clear the variation characteristics of climatic potential productivity in Baoji city , according to the measured values of daily air temperature and rainfall of Baoji city during 1960~2014 from Baoji Meteorological Station ( No. 57016) , we used Thornthwaite Memorial model to calculate the climatic potential productivity in Baoji city , and analyzed its vari-ation characteristics through comprehensively using climate tendency rate, accumulated anomaly method, Morlet wavelet function, Mann-Kendall non-parameter test combined with moving t-test, and Yamamoto analysis.The results showed that:in the past 55 years, the climatic potential productivity of Baoji city was 1105.7 kg/( hm2 · a) averagely, and it was decreasing at the rate of 0.87 kg/( hm2 · a) , and occurred a sudden change in the 1990s.The climatic potential productivity revealed multi-periodic changes, and its change periods were nearly 13, 22, 28 and 32 a.The rainfall was the dominant factor restricting the development of climatic potential productivity in this area;warming and humidifying were beneficial to the increase in the climatic potential pro-ductivity, and the warm and wet climate was best for the growth of agricultural crops .
展开▼
