基于门限误差修正模型对中国小麦市场和面粉市场之间的价格传导进行分析,考虑到价格水平、面粉加工需求及流通环节等方面的差异,将小麦市场细分为普通麦和优质麦,并结合最低收购价政策背景进行分析与对比.结果表明:小麦价格与面粉价格间存在非对称性传导,普通麦与面粉价格间为单向传导,优质麦和面粉价格间为双向传导,且均存在传导程度和调整速度的非对称性.造成价格传导方向存在差异的主要原因为针对普通小麦实施的最低收购价政策,这种差异使得普通麦和面粉市场间处于一种相对分割的状态;而优质麦与面粉市场间的价格传导更为顺畅,产业上下游之间能够通过价格的传递分享利润和分担风险.同时,干预政策、调整成本、产品本身特性以及政府的其他措施等因素也是导致小麦与面粉价格间非对称传导的重要因素.%Based on the three regimes threshold vector error correction model,price transmission between wheat price and flour price was studied.The wheat market was subdivided into white wheat and high-quality wheat,in the perspective of wheat price rise,the flour need for wheat and distribution for wheat consumption.The results showed that the price transmission between wheat price and flour price were asymmetry.Direction of price transmission between white wheat and flour price was one-way transmission,while the direction of price transmission between high-quality wheat and flour price was double-way transmission.The speed of adjustment to long-term equilibrium and magnitude of transmission were also asymmetry.The main reason was the minimum purchasing price policy for the white wheat.The differences made a relative division between the white wheat market and the flour market.By contrast,the price transmission between high-quality wheat and flour market was smoother,and the profit and risk could be shared.Besides,governmental intervention to wheat market,cost of price adjustment,nature of products and guidance from government contributed to the asymmetric transmission.
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