空域容量是空域管制服务保障能力的重要指标之一,其准确预测和评估对安排航班时刻、实施管制服务具有参考价值。根据管制员工作负荷的自相关增长规律,首次提出了基于自回归移动平均( Autoregressive moving average,ARMA)模型的空域容量评估方法。以国内西部某机场为例进行空域容量评估研究,通过仿真验证,ARMA模型很好地评估了空域容量,证明了方法的有效性。%Airspace capacity is an important indicator of the service ability of the airspace control. The ac-curate prediction and assessment of airspace capacity has the guiding significance to making arrangements for flight time arrangement and implementation control service. According to autocorrelation growth rule of controller′s workload,the airspace capacity assessment method based on Autoregressive moving average ( ARMA) model was first proposed. Taking the airport in Western China as an example,this paper makes a research on airspace capacity assessment. Comparing to the simulation results, the ARMA model can commendably assess the airspace capacity,at the same time it proves the validity of the method.
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