基于不同材料传热管的运行经验，统计总的管临界年数以区分不同核电厂蒸汽发生器传热管数的影响，并将Jeffreys分布作为先验分布统计分析690TT以及经热处理的传热管（包含600TT和690TT）发生破裂的频率。该方法得到的蒸汽发生器传热管破裂（SGTR）始发事件频率可较合理地体现传热管材料性能的改进对降低该事件导致安全壳旁通失效风险的影响及贡献，与通用数据库中未区分传热管材料对应的频率相比明显降低，且随着690TT传热管运行经验的进一步累积，预期SGTR始发事件频率会进一步降低。%Based on operation experience of different tube materials , the rupture fre‐quency was analyzed for 690TT and thermally treated tube (including 600TT and 690T T ) ,taking Jeffreys as the prior distribution ,accounting the total tube critical years to distinguish the steam generator tube numbers of different plants .The steam genera‐tor tube rupture (SGTR) initiating event frequency calculated in this way can appropri‐ately display the decreasing impact and contribution of containment bypass failure risk induced by SGTR through improvement of tube material performance .Comparing with the frequency from generic database ,it’s much lower and it will be even lower as the 690T T tube operation experience extends .
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