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社会物流费用占GDP比重分解与中美比较

         

摘要

The logistics cost affects economic development quality;and correctly understanding the connotation of"logistics cost as a percent of GDP"is the foundation of implementing the strategy on logistics supply side reform and reducing the logistics costs. The connotation and influencing factor of"logistics costs/GDP"is studied by divided into two indexes of"unit GDP logistics turnover"and"unit turnover logistics rate"from micro mechanism. The research indicates that:China's unit GDP logistics turnover is large,which is about 5 to 10 times that of the United States in the same period,and it is the main reason that can be used to explain the result of large portion of logistics costs in GDP in China;China's unit turnover logistics rate is not high,it remains stable between the years of 1991 to 2017,which is about 30%of the United States in the same period according to the real price of the base period in 1991;the unit value goods logistics cost decreased significantly during the year of 1991 to 2017,and it approaches to 4.27%in 2017 from 17.15%in 1991,which is about 50%of the United States. To better promote cost decreasing and benefit increasing of China's logistics industry,we should,from the macro perspective,optimize the economic structure and improve the economic quality to reduce the "logistics cost/GDP";and at the micro angle,we should strengthen the market mechanism to enhance the value added capacity of the logistics goods,and effectively implement measures to reduce the operating cost of logistics enterprises to improve the "money making" ability of the logistics industry.%物流成本高低影响经济发展质量,正确理解社会物流费用占GDP比重的内涵是推动我国物流供给侧结构性改革、降低物流成本的前提.从微观机制入手,将社会物流费用占GDP比重这一宏观指标分解成单位GDP物流规模和单位物流规模物流费率两个指标,系统研究社会物流费用占GDP比重的内涵和影响因素可以发现,我国单位GDP物流周转量规模较大,约为同时期美国的5~10倍,这是导致我国社会物流费用占GDP比重较大的主要原因;我国单位物流周转量物流费率并不高,按照1991年基期真实价格核算,1991-2017年呈稳定持平态势,约为同时期美国的30%;我国单位价值货物物流成本下降显著,从1991年的17.15%下降到2017年4.27%,约为同时期美国的50%.因此,为更好地推动我国物流业降本增效,一方面需要从宏观角度着手,优化经济结构,提升经济质量,降低社会物流费用占GDP比重;另一方面需要从微观角度着手,强化市场机制,提升产品价值增值能力,切实采取措施降低物流企业运营成本,提升物流业"赚钱"能力.

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