基于我国燃煤锅炉的技术特征和国内外排放清单编制技术方法,建立了燃煤锅炉PM2.5减排潜力计算方法,以2012年为基准年,设计了3种控制情景,对2020年京津冀地区燃煤锅炉PM2.5减排潜力进行预测和分析.结果表明:2012年京津冀地区燃煤锅炉PM2.5排放量为7.83×104t,随着控制措施的不断加严,PM2.5排放量逐渐减少,一般控制情景、重点区域控制情景和加严控制情景下2020年京津冀地区燃煤锅炉PM2.5排放量分别为1.25×104t、0.58×104t和0.18×104t,相对于基准年而言,分别减少6.6×104t、7.2×104t和7.6×104t;减排比例分别达到84.0％、92.6％和97.7％.各城市燃煤锅炉PM2.5减排潜力与锅炉耗煤量、锅炉规模分布、用煤灰分、除尘技术应用情况等有关,京津冀地区PM2.5减排潜力最大的城市是天津市,河北省减排潜力最大的城市是石家庄市;在加严控制情景下,唐山市、北京市、保定市和秦皇岛市的PM2.5减排潜力均超过了0.5×104t.%A predictive model for PM2.5 emissions from Coal-fired boilers was developed based on the technology distribution and the emissions inventory methodologies applied domestically and abroad.Three scenarios were designed to analyze the emission potentials and distributions of PM2.5 from coal-fired boilers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area in 2020.The results showed that PM2.5 emissions from coal-fired boilers were 1.25× 104t,0.58× 104t and0.18×104 under different scenarios in 2020,respectively.Compared with the base year,PM2.5 emission reductions of coal-fired boilers were 6.6× 104t,7.2× 104t and 7.6× 104t,respectively,with the reduction rates of 84.0％,92.6％ and 97.7％.Emission reduction potentials in different cities are dependent on coal consumption by coal-fired boilers,capacity of boilers,ash content of the coal and dust control measures.The reduction potentials from coal-fired boilers of Tianjin were largest in BeijingTianjin-Hebei cities.Shijiazhuang was the top city in terms of reduction potentials in Hebei province.In the enhanced control scenario,the emissions reduction potentials could exceed 0.5×104t in Tangshan,Beijing,Baoding and Qinhuangdao.
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机译：Assessing Correlation between PM2.5 and Meteorological Variables and Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on PM2.5 =PM2.5与气象因子的相关性分析及气候变化对PM2.5的影响
