伊朗不仅是传统的能源和金属矿产供应大国,同时其能源资源消费在中东地区也是首屈一指,其未来需求趋势对区域乃至国际供需格局具有重要影响.本文通过对伊朗经济社会发展以及能源和重要金属消费历史的分析,综合运用人均矿产资源需求预测法和部门需求预测法,在全面研判伊朗未来经济和产业发展趋势的基础上,系统预测了能源、粗钢、精炼铜和原铝需求;指出2030年较2015年,伊朗能源需求总量增长将超过80%,石油出口将下降约3000万t(降低约20%),天然气将主要用于本国消费,基本不再出口;粗钢人均消费将在2025年到达顶点;铜、铝需求将分别增长74%、117%;未来伊朗粗钢、精炼铜和原铝出口规模将持续扩大,成为中东地区主要供应地.%Iran is not only the traditional energy and metal mineral supplier country, while its energy consumption in the Middle East is also come first on the list, and its future demand trends have an important impact on the regional and international supply and demand pattern.This article based on the future development trend of economy and industry in Iran, through the economic and social development as well as energy and metal consumption history analysis, using the method of forecasting the demand for mineral resources per capita and the section demand forecasting method, to forecast energy, crude steel, refined copper and aluminum demand.Compared to 2015, in 2030, the primary energy demand growth in Iran will exceed 80%, oil exports will be lower than the current decreased by about 30 million tons (about 20% lower), natural gas will be used mainly for domestic consumption, basically no longer exports;the per capita consumption of crude steel in 2025 will reach peak;copper, aluminum demand will grow by 74% and 117%;crude steel, refined copper and aluminum exports will continue to expand the scale of the future, Iran will become a major supplier in the middle east.
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