Tin ore is one of preponderant minerals in China,and it was involved into protective mining minerals in 1991.However,in recent years,there are several phenomena which have bad impact on tin ore carrying capacity such as over-exploitation,low rate of regeneration and difficulty in prospecting etc.The current management policy cannot adjust to tin ore development strategy in a long term.In order to minimize the gap of supply and demand,this paper proposes five policy options by analyzing relationships among production,demand,import volume,reserve and carrying capacity from history data since 2004 to 2014,using system dynamic model to forecast tin ore carrying capacity in the next decade.The results show that:if the production can keep nearly 9.2 million tons and the rate of regeneration can reach to 30%,the tin ore carrying capacity of production and demand can improve 52.6% and 56.3% respectively,enhance the reserve of resources can greatly enhance the future carrying capacity.Control production reasonably and enhance the rate of regeneration are benefit to optimize China's tin ore supply structure.According to the options'results,it is suggested that government should make mandatory production plan in accordance with dynamic development trend,strengthen the establishment of recycling policy and application system,and make efforts to explore domestic tin ore reserves as well as implementation of overseas investment mergers and acquisitions.%锡是中国优势矿产之一,在1991年被列入保护性开采特定矿种.由于近年来开采过度、资源回收利用率低、找矿难度大等因素,导致中国锡矿资源未来可持续开采和消费保障度快速下降,按现行的矿种规划与管理无法适应锡矿长期开采、回收与进出口的战略布局.本文根据2004~2014年锡矿历史数据,以缩小供需差为目标,通过分析产量、需求量、进口量、储量与资源保障度的关系提出5种政策方案,运用系统动力学模型预测5种方案下锡矿2015~2025年的资源保障度变化情况.结果显示到2025年产量维持在9.2万t左右、回收利用率达到30%可以使锡矿开采和消费保障度分别提高52.6%和56.3%,加强资源后备储量能大幅提升锡矿未来保障度,控制生产、提高回收利用率将有利于优化中国锡矿供给结构,降低供应风险.根据模型结果提出要合理制定生产指令性计划严控产量,加强回收利用制度建立,加大国内勘查力度、实施缅甸佤邦一带投资并购等政策建议.
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