Beautiful China-Tourism industry is an open giant system with broad connotation, complex structures, multidimensional relationship and coupling characteristics. Based on a thorough analysis of the coupling interaction mechanism between Beautiful China system and tourism industry system, this paper firstly constructs an evaluation system of the coordinated development about Beautiful China and tourism industry and evaluates the development level of these two systems of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt by means of weighted TOPSIS method. Secondly this paper analyzes the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of 11 provinces from temporal and spatial dimension based on the coupling model in physics. Lastly,the coupling coordination degree of regional Beautiful China-tourism industry system is predicted in the following 10 years by GM (1.1) forecasting model. The research result shows:(1)The Beautiful China system and tourism industry system have apparent coupling interactive development characteristic. That is to say, there is a significant relationship between the two systems. (2) The comprehensive development level of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt for Beautiful China system and tourism industry fluctuates upward trend and development tendency is of convergence, however, the volatility of tourism system development level is more obvious; The overall value of the Beautiful China system is higher than that of the tourism industry,which indicates that the driving force of the tourism industry to the Beautiful China lags behind Beautiful china driving tourism industry. (3) The coupling degree and coupling coordination of the two system steadily promote for 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt with more slow evolution; the coupling degree is always in the running stage and the coupling coordination degree just enters the stage of barely coordination; the prediction results show that the coupling coordination degree of the next 10 years evolves significantly faster. (4)There are significant spatial differences for two systems evaluation value, coupling index, the coupling coordination degree in 11 provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,presenting"high-low-high-low-high"spatial pattern from east to west in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and tourism industry has become the effective and dependent path to bridge regional development differences.%美丽中国—旅游业是内涵广泛且结构复杂的具有耦合特征的开放性巨系统.在全面剖析美丽中国系统与旅游业系统耦合互动作用机理的基础上,建构了美丽中国—旅游业耦合协调度指标体系,并运用加权TOPSIS法对长江经济带11省市两大系统的综合发展水平进行测度,然后基于耦合协调模型从时空维度对该区域11省市两大系统的耦合协调演化关系给予分析,最后结合修正GM(1.1)模型预测了该区域11省市两大系统耦合协调度未来10年的变化轨迹.研究发现:(1)美丽中国系统与旅游业系统之间耦合协调发展特征显著,即两大系统之间存在明显相互作用、相互促进的关系.(2)长江经济带11省市美丽中国系统与旅游业系统发展水平呈波动上升态势且发展态势趋同,但旅游业系统发展水平波动幅度较美丽中国系统更为明显;该区域美丽中国系统评价值长期高于旅游业系统评价值,表明旅游业对美丽中国建设的驱动作用滞后于美丽中国建设对旅游业的促进作用.(3)长江经济带11省市两大系统耦合度和耦合协调度处在稳步上升状态,但提升与演进速度较为缓慢,其中耦合度始终处于磨合阶段,耦合协调度才跨入勉强协调阶段;预测结果显示未来10年耦合协调度演化进程明显加快.(4)长江经济带11省市两大系统评价值、耦合度指数、耦合协调度等均存在显著的地域空间差异,从东向西基本上呈现"高—较低—较高—低—较高"的空间格局,而旅游业成为弥合区域发展差异的有效路径依赖.
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