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大型体育赛事风险评估的结构方程模型构建及实证研究

         

摘要

This paper constructs a risk assessment index system for large-scale sports events by adopting Delphi method, structural equation model and list arrangement method, and then conducts an empirical study. The results show that the risk index system of large sports events consists of 20 observation variables and 4 potential variables; through the empirical analysis of 2017 BRICS Games, the staff safety risk, sponsorship risk, ticket and souvenir sales risk, equipment failure, venue quality and safety risk are the game identified as high-risk indexes. Based on the results, the following suggestions are given accordingly: first, improve pre-competition risk response and prevention system and set up risk prevention and control groups; second, optimize the use of resources, develop risk contingency plans and do drills and trainings regularly; third, enhance risk management with commercial insurance,specify risk management and prevention procedures to effectively transfer risks or control risk losses; fourthly, after the match for risk management, the realization of risk transfer, sum up experience,enhance risk managementability.%通过运用德尔菲法、结构方程模型、列表排列法等对大型体育赛事风险评估指标体系进行构建并进行实证研究.研究结果显示,大型体育赛事风险指标体系由4个潜在风险因子和20个观测变量组成;通过对2017年金砖国家运动会进行实证分析,工作人员安全风险、赞助风险、门票纪念品销售风险、设备故障风险、场馆质量安全风险是此次金砖国家运动会高危风险.在此基础上,认为应提高赛前风险应对与防范,成立风险防控管理领导小组,优化环境建设,制订赛事风险应急预案并演习,加强培训和预演,完善赛事保险规划与购买;加强赛中风险防范,规范化管理赛事风险,加强风险有效转移,控制风险止损;赛后做好风险处置,实现风险转移,总结经验,提高赛事风险应对能力.

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