从蔬菜产业的纵向看,批发和零售是两个重要环节,蔬菜批发价格和零售价格的走势以及它们之间的关系是各界关注的焦点.本文以北京市场为例,以番茄和黄瓜两种果类蔬菜的按日批零价格为对象,运用有限分布滞后模型和误差修正模型进行实证分析,研究蔬菜批零价格间的传导关系,并在此基础上揭示蔬菜批发价格在蔬菜价格形成中的作用.研究发现:蔬菜批零价格走势基本一致,相关系数很高;批零价格间存在批发价格向零售价格单向传导的因果关系;批零价格的传导是顺畅的,但不同种蔬菜传导的时间效应有所不同;批发价格在蔬菜价格形成中占据主导作用,当蔬菜价格受到冲击时,若零售价格过高则其会向着批发价格下调,若批发价格过高则零售价格会随之走高.%Looking vegetable industry from the vertical view,wholesale and retail are 2 important links.The movement of vegetable wholesale and retail prices and their relationship are the focus of all circles concern.This article takes the Beijing market as example,and the daily wholesale and retail prices of tomato and cucumber as object,analyzed the transmission relationship between vegetable wholesale and retail prices using the method of finite distributed lag model and error correction model.The study reveals that these 2 price trend are basically the same,and the correlation coefficient between the wholesale price and retail price is very high.There is one-way transmission of causal relationship between these 2 prices;the transmission between them is smooth,but the transmission time effect of different kinds vegetables is different.The wholesale price takes a leading role in vegetable price formation.When the vegetables price is under attack,if the retail impact is too high it will go dowm to the wholesale price;if the wholesale price is too high,the retail price will also be higher.
展开▼
