[目的]使用1970~2013年时间序列数据,分析了低碳情景下我国煤炭、石油与可再生能源的消费替代.[方法与结果]单位根检验显示各变量是一阶单整Ⅰ(1).Johansen协整检验说明变量之间存在着协整关系.FMOLS回归表明,GDP、煤炭消费和石油消费会提高CO2排放量,可再生能源消费会降低CO2排放量.长期内,GDP、煤炭、石油、可再生能源消费与CO2排放之间存在着双向的Granger因果关系.短期内,可再生能源消费与GDP、CO2排放之间存在着双向Granger因果关系.煤炭、石油消费是可再生能源消费的单向Granger原因.GDP是煤炭消费、CO2排放的单向Granger原因.石油消费是GDP的单向Granger原因.广义预测误差方差分解显示,实行从煤炭、石油消费到可再生能源的燃料替代将会降低环境污染,提高环境可持续性.[结论]基于上述实证研究,提出建立激励机制,实现可再生能源对煤炭、石油的替代,转变能源消费结构,降低煤炭和石油消费比例,开发利用可再生能源,为可再生能源的发展建立硬性约束,提高环境可持续性等建议.%Using time series data from 1997 to 2012, this paper studied the consumption substitution of coal, oil and renewable energy in China.The unit root test showed that each variable had integration of order 1.The Johansen co-integration test indicated that there were co-integration relationships among variables.Using FMOLS regression method, it found that GDP, coal consumption and oil consumption increased carbon dioxide emissions, while renewable energy consumption reduced emissions.There were bidirectional Granger causal relationships among GDP, coal, oil, renewable energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.In the short time, there were bidirectional Granger causal relationship from renewable energy consumption to GDP and carbon dioxide emissions.There was a unidirectional Granger causal relationship between coal and oil consumption and renewable energy consumption.The generalized forecast error variance decomposition revealed that the fuel substitution from coal, oil consumption to renewable energy would reduce environmental pollution and enhance environmental sustainability.Finally, it put forward some suggestions such as setting up incentive mechanism, achieving renewable energy substitution for coal and oil consumption, changing energy consumption structure, reducing coal and oil consumption proportion, developing and utilizing renewable energy, founding solid restraint for the development of renewable energy, and increasing environment sustainability, etc.
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