[目的]通过测算农业生产水环境承载力来评价我国农业生产污染状况,并据此对我国农业生产力布局提出建议.[方法]利用中国2006、2014年七大农区24省份统计数据,采用过剩氮和水盈余方法测算农业生产水环境承载力及其污染风险.[结果]目前我国水资源总量能够承载农业生产总量,但其环境警报值不断向污染威胁临界值逼近,并且存在显著的区域差异;东北平原、长江流域和华南绝大部分地区的农业生产在环境承载力范围内;汾渭平原和河套灌区的农业生产对环境存在略微的污染风险;甘肃新疆和黄淮海平原的农业生产严重超出环境承载力,污染风险最为严重.[结论]可适当增加东北平原、长江流域和华南绝大部分地区的农业生产规模;加强汾渭平原和河套灌区的污染物质消减措施;强制实行甘肃新疆和黄淮海平原的生产总量控制与污染消减措施.同时,还可以从节水技术、减排技术、作物耕作制度、农牧循环体系及政策法规等方面入手,全面提高农业生产水环境承载力.%This article evaluated the pollution status of agricultural production in China by calculating the water environmental carrying capacity, and then it put forward some suggestions on the layout of agricultural productivity.The statistical data from 7 crops growing areas in 24 provinces of China in 2006 and 2014 were used in the paper.The results showed that China′s total water resources could support the agricultural production, but the environmental warning value approached to the pollution threat threshold, with significant regional differences.The agricultural production in Northeast Plain, Yangtze River Basin and South China was within the scope of environmental bearing capacity, but the agricultural production in Hetao Irrigation District and Fenwei plain had slight pollution risk, and was beyond the environmental bearing capacity in Xinjiang, Gansu province and Huang-huai-hai plain.It should appropriately expand the scale of agricultural production in Northeast Plain, Yangtze River Basin and South China, mitigate the pollutants combined with regional industrial development characteristics in Hetao Irrigation District and Fen Wei plain, and enforce total pollution reduction in Xinjiang, Gansu province and Huang-huai-hai plain.Meanwhile, in order to improve water environment carrying capacity of agricultural production, it also should adopt measures on water saving technology, emission reduction technology, crop farming system, agriculture and animal husbandry circulation system, and policy laws and regulations, etc.
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