On the basis of elaborating the interactive development mechanism among rural land circulation, labor transfer and urbanization in the integration of urban and rural development, this paper established the coupling de-gree index system of urban and rural development, analyzed the characteristics of the rural land circulation, labor transfer and the urbanization in Heze city, Shangdong province from 2000 to 2011 using the coupling degree, the coupling coordination degree mathematical models and measurement methods. And then it predicted the coupling coordination degree and the stage features in the study area from the year 2012 to 2014 using the auto correlation of various subsystems and method of moving average prediction. The results were as follows:(1) the coupling coordi-nation degree of the various subsystems in rural development compound systems showed a variation in the three dif-ferent stages from 2000 to 2011. Overall, the study area was in the parallel period of over reconciling and disorders of recession. (2) The forecast coupling coordination degree of each subsystem declined from mild disorders reces-sion to offset recession from 2012 to 2014 . It concluded that:( 1 ) The contradiction between urban and rural was obvious in the study area, and the urban and rural interactive development was grim;(2) The slow rural land cir-culation and labor force transfer in the study area had become a major bottleneck restricting the coupling coordina-ting degree enhancement and coupling coordination type optimization of urban and rural development in the study area.%文章在阐述城乡统筹发展中农地流转、 劳动力转移及城镇化互动作用机理的基础上,构建城乡统筹发展的耦合协调度指标体系,运用相关数学模型与计量方法,以山东菏泽市为例,分析了该市2000~2011年期间农地流转、 劳动力转移及城镇化三者之间互动变化及其所处阶段特征与优化改进措施,进而采用城乡统筹发展复合系统内各子系统自相关与滑动平均预测的方法,预测了该市2012~2014年间各子系统之间耦合协调度及其所处阶段特征.研究结果:(1)该市城乡统筹发展复合系统中各子系统耦合协调度在2000~2011年间呈现出显然不同的3阶段性特征,从总体上看,此期间该市正处于过度调和与失调衰退并行期;(2)所预测的2012~2014年间各子系统耦合协调度逐步由轻度失调衰退期向濒临失调衰退期下滑.研究结论:(1)该市城乡二元结构矛盾依然十分突出,城乡统筹发展失调形势依然严峻;(2)农地流转、劳动力转移进程缓慢是制约其城乡统筹发展耦合协调度提升与耦合协调类型优化升级的主要瓶颈.
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