文章通过对3个省(自治区)、5个市,268户谷子种植户的问卷调查,采用logit模型,使用逐步回归分析的方法,对影响谷子种植户持续种植谷子意愿的因素进行了分析.从户主个人基本情况、 农户家庭情况、 农户农业生产情况、 谷子生产情况等4个方面共选择13项调查内容作为解释变量,以第2年是否持续种植谷子作为被解释变量,逐步回归分析结果表明:种植户种植业收入占家庭总收入的比重、 种植户家庭耕地面积、 谷子种植补贴通过了显著性检验.种植业收入占家庭总收入的比重与谷子持续种植呈显著负相关,比重越高持续种植意愿越低.谷子产量受自然因素影响大,农户从减小风险的角度出发,收入对种植业越依赖谷子的种植意愿越弱.家庭耕地面积与谷子持续种植呈显著正相关,家庭耕地面积越大,谷子被选择种植的机会也就越大,规模效应越明显,持续种植意愿越强.补贴对持续种植意愿呈显著正相关关系,种植补贴意味着更多的收益,积极性就越高.依据分析结果提出了要进一步提升对种植谷子的重视,加大科研投入力度,做好科技成果的转化与推广工作;要加大谷子种植补贴的力度、 范围及内容,在良种、 农膜、 资金等方面对种植户给予支持与补贴,调动农户谷子种植的积极性;推进土地流转,在农户种植规模扩大过程中提高土地规模效益的政策建议.%Based on the questionnaire survey of 268 millet growing households from five cities, three provinces ( autonomous regions) , and this paper analyzed the factors affecting the grain growing intention using the logit mod-el and the stepwise regression analysis method. 13 feasible influencing factors were selected as the explaining vari-ablefrom four aspects, i. e. , the personal basic situation, the situation of farm households, the household agricul-tural production condition, and millet production situation, and the farmer's intention whether to continue to grow millet in next year was selected as the explained variable. The stepwise regression analysis results showed that:Three variables were through the significant test, i. e. , the proportion of the farmers planting industry revenues in total household income, cultivated land area, and the millet planting subsidies. The proportion of the planting in-dustry revenues in the total household income was negatively related to the continued planting intention. The millet planting intention was low when the proportion was high from the view of reducing the risk affected by natural fac-tors. The arable land of farm households was significantly positively related to the intention of millet planting, be-cause the larger farm household cultivated land area had more opportunity to choose the millet variety and higher scale benefits. The millet planting subsidy had significant positive correlation on millet planting intention because it could bring more benefits to farmers to improve the enthusiasm of farmers planting millet. Finally, it put forward some suggestions including that it should pay more attention and increase subsidies for millet planting, provide the technical and financial support for the millet planting seeds, agricultural plastic films to reduce the peasant house-hold production cost, increase farmers millet planting benefit, and arouse the enthusiasm of farmers millet cultiva-tion, and promote land circulation to expand the scale of planting and improve the benefits of land scale.
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