新疆棉花产业的发展事关新疆经济社会发展,也事关新疆稳定大局.棉花产业已经成为新疆的重要支柱及农民脱贫致富的主要途径.为了更好地服务新疆棉花产业和国家"一带一路"开放战略,文章基于新疆南部地区的实地调研,结合南疆地区特有的社会经济环境和区域民俗文化的条件,借助Logistic回归模型,分别从自然环境条件、家庭因素、市场因素、技术因素、政策因素、风险因素等6个方面对棉农生产行为的影响因素进行分析.研究表明:政策因素、自然因素、风险因素、技术因素对棉农生产行为的影响比较显著,具体的因素主要有棉花补贴、土地肥力、养老保险、医疗保险、农业保险以及技术指导和采用新技术;而劳动力素质、棉农投入的劳动天数、耕地面积、大型农业机械设备、棉花的销售收入、移动电话拥有量、成本支出、化肥使用量、水资源等对棉农生产行为影响较不显著.%The development of cotton industry is related to the economic and social development of Xinjiang, and it also concerns the stability of the overall situation of Xinjiang. Cotton industry has become an important pillar of Xinjiang and the main way to get rid of poverty. In order to serve the cotton industry and the country" The Belt and Road Initiative " strategy, The livelihood of cotton farmers concerns the sustainable development of cotton industry in Xinjiang and even China. Based on the methods of questionnaire and field interview, this paper has a systemic study on the livelihood changes of cotton farmers from the aspects of land and water resources, production and oper-ation, technology promotion, fiscal taxation, credit financing, rural social security, and informal institution. The results show that the production behaviors of cotton farmers are influenced significantly by policy factors, natural factors, risk factors, technical factors. specific factors are mainly cotton subsidies, land fertility, endowment insur-ance, medical insurance, agricultural insurance and technical guidance and using new technologies;and quality of labor, farmers input work days, cultivated area, large agricultural machinery and equipment, cotton sales revenue, mobile phone has the quantity, cost and expenditure, fertilizer amount, and the water resources use of cotton pro-duction behavior influence is not significant.
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