为探究生猪产业集聚对水体氮污染的影响,选取2003-2015年我国20个生猪主要产销区的面板数据,在IPAT分析框架下估算了养殖造成的水体氮污染,并构建了IPATM-EKC模型,实证分析了生猪产业集聚程度与水体氮污染之间的关系.研究发现:北方养殖水污染程度较轻,但北方养殖造成的水污染量逐年增加,相关部门应对北方生猪养殖水污染给予足够的重视;生猪产业集聚程度与养殖水污染的关系呈“U”型,且我国绝大部分地区处于曲线的下降阶段,增加产业集聚程度可以减少养殖水污染.文章从产业集聚的不同驱动因素对实证结果进行解释,并依据实证结果给出了相应的政策建议.%To explore the impact of hog industry agglomeration on nitrogen pollution in water,in this paper,we selected panel data of major hog production and marketing areas in 20 provinces of China from 2003 to 2015,estimated the nitrogen pollution caused by aquaculture using the analysis framework of IPAT,and constructed IPATM-EKC model.The relationship between the agglomeration of hog industry and nitrogen pollution of water was analyzed empirically.The result shows:(1) The water pollution degree of the northern aquaculture was lighter,but the water pollution caused by the northern aquaculture increased year by year,and the water pollution of hog breeding should be paid enough attention to by relevant departments in the north.(2) The relationship between agglomeration of hog industry and aquaculture water pollution was "U" type,and most regions in China were in the descending stage of the curve,increasing the degree of industrial agglomeration can reduce the pollution of aquaculture water.We explained the empirical results from the different driving factors of industrial agglomeration,and obtained the corresponding policy recommendations based on the empirical results in this paper.
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