目的：评价ESRS评分对短暂性脑缺血发作（transient ischemic attack ，TIA）及非心源性脑梗死患者卒中复发的预测价值。方法：连续入组TIA及非心源性脑梗死患者816例，随访1年内卒中的复发率。采用受试者工作特征（receiver operating characteristic ，ROC）曲线评估Essen卒中风险评分（Essen stroke risk score ，ESRS）在总体人群及TIA、小卒中、大卒中患者中预测卒中复发的效度。结果：完成1年期随访757例，完成随方的总体人群及 T IA、小卒中、大卒中患者1年期卒中复发率分别为12．95％、15．04％、10．21％、13．88％，ESRS评分预测卒中复发的曲线下面积（area under the curve ，AUC）分别为0．601、0．596、0．582、0．611。结论：ESRS评分预测大卒中患者卒中复发率的效度最高，TIA其次，小卒中不理想。%Objective:To evaluate the predictive values of Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) for recurrence of stroke in patients with transient ishemic attack(TIA) or non‐cardiogenic cerebral infarction .Methods:A total of 816 patients with TIA or non‐cardiogenic cerebral infarction were recruited and the incidence of stroke was followed up for one year .The validity of ESRS for predicting recurrence of stroke in all subjects ,TIA patients ,minor stroke subjects and major stroke cases ,was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve .Results:A total of 757 cases completed the 1 year follow‐up .The one‐year recurrence rates of stroke ,in all subjects ,TIA patients ,minor stroke subjects and major stroke cases ,were 12 .95% , 15 .04% 、10 .21% ,13 .88% ,respectively .The area under the curve(AUC) values of ESRS for predicting recurrence of stroke were 0 .601 ,0 .596 ,0 .582 ,0 .611 ,respectively .Conclusions:The validity of ESRS for predicting recurrence rate of stroke was highest in major stroke patients ,while it was the second highest in TIA cases .However ,the validity was lower than expected in minor stroke subjects .
展开▼
