The authors establish an incomplete information Bertrand duopoly model to forecast the essential influence on the equilibrium profit of state-owned commercial bank and the social welfare from the variety of the expectation by foreign bank, when the state-owned commercial bank has the information advantage about the status of saving market. We find that the equilibrium interest rate of the state-owned commercial bank would set down lower, as the expectation probability for the appearing of high spontaneous deposit rises. The equilibrium profit of state-owned commercial bank and the social welfare will increase when the foreign bank has the optimistic expectation for the status of saving market. The information advantage of state-owned commercial bank could become the competition advantage.%通过建立双头利率竞争的不完全信息Bertrand混合寡占模型,从理论上讨论了在国有商业银行拥有中国存款市场行情信息优势的情况下,外资银行对市场行情预期的变化,将给国有商业银行的均衡利润及存款市场的社会福利带来的影响.研究发现:①外资银行预期高自发存款量出现的概率越大,国有商业银行确定的均衡利率就越小;②外资银行对市场行情的乐观预期会增加国有商业银行的均衡利润与存款市场的均衡社会福利水平;③国有商业银行的信息优势能够转化为它与外资银行策略性互动中的竞争优势.
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