On the basis of the current related research results, under the hypotheses condition that the senior managers of listed companies are overconfident, this paper studies the effect mechanism of the senior managers' overconfident psychological preference on the dividend payout policy of firms by setting up an appropriate mathematical model theoretically, and makes the corresponding empirical study on this problem using the data samples from the listed companies in China. The results show that, when the signal value observed by the senior managers of listed company is greater than the mean value of project quality, the level of dividend payout is negatively related to the senior managers' overconfident psychological preference, and when the signal value observed by the senior managers of listed companies is less than the mean value of project quality, the level of dividend payout is positively related to the senior managers' overconfident psychological preference. The level of dividend payout is higher in firms managed by overconfident senior managers under the stock market conditions of our country.%在现有研究成果的基础上,在假设上市公司高管人员过度自信的条件下,建立恰当的数学模型从理论上研究上市公司高管人员的过度自信心理偏好对公司股利分配决策的影响机理.同时,以中国上市公司为样本对我国上市公司高管人员的过度自信心理偏好如何影响其股利分配决策进行实证研究.研究结果表明,当上市公司高管人员观察到的项目信号值大于项目质量均值时,股利分配水平与其过度自信负相关；当高管人员观察到的信号值小于项目质量均值时,股利分配水平与其过度自信正相关；在我国股票市场环境下,股利分配水平在过度自信高管人员经营的公司中更高.
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