In allusion to the uncertainty of spare parts demand in practical. Firstly, the uncertainty of demand is described by fuzzy random variables in this paper, and the spare parts expectation shortages show through the grey set and expectation theory, then the problems on the optimization of the multi-echelon spare parts inventory under the uncertainty demands has been studied. The interval of uncertainty availability has been proposed, and the spare parts inventory optimization model is build with the marginal analysis method, then programmed the optimize simulation. Thus, after the availability of system for interval estimation, the Best of cost-effective curve under the uncertainty of demand has been got. This method can provide a new way to solve the optimization questions of spare parts inventory under the uncertainty of demand.%针对现实中备件需求量的不确定性,论文首先用模糊随机变量描述不确定需求,并通过灰集以及期望值理论表示出备件期望短缺数,然后对多级备件库存系统在不确定需求环境下的优化问题作了研究,提出了不确定性可用度的区间估计,并利用边际分析法建立了备件库存优化模型,进而对其进行优化仿真,最后对系统可用度进行区间估计,得到了不确定需求下的最优费效比曲线.该方法能够为解决不确定需求下备件库存优化问题提供斯的途径.
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