Government needs to balance the growth and economic fluctuations,and the correct understanding of the wel-fare loss of the economic cycles is of great significance for the government to formulate macroeconomic policies.The paper expands the Lucas model,and establishes an estimation model of economic cycles cost including the fluctuations of labor-ing hours,finding that the welfare loss of the economic cycles is related to the fluctuations of laboring hours.The costs of economic cycles reach 0.1598%to 0.2437%,if we consider that some people assume the total fluctuations of laboring hours,the estimated value will reach 0.1844%to 2.306%,making the estimation of the costs of economic cycles out of the shackles of the risk aversion coefficient.Therefore, this paper thinks that the inter period fluctuations of laboring hours will also damage residents' welfare and the analysis of the costs of economic cycles should focus on the impact of the cycles fluctuation on allocation of resources.%政府需要在促增长和抑制经济波动之间进行权衡,正确理解经济周期波动的福利损失对政府制定宏观经济政策具有重要意义.本文对Lucas模型进行了拓展,建立了一个包含劳动时间波动的经济周期成本估算模型,发现经济周期波动的福利损失与其导致的劳动时间跨期波动相关,研究表明,中国的经济周期成本达到0.1598%到0.2437%,如果考虑到部分人承担了总劳动时间波动,估算值将达到0.1844%到2.306%.本文的贡献在于使得经济周期成本的估算脱离风险规避系数的束缚,认为劳动时间的跨期波动也会损害居民福利,并且经济周期波动成本的分析应该着重研究周期波动对资源配置的影响.
展开▼
