After the Subprime Crisis, the role of financial frictions in economic growth and business cycle fluctuations has aroused great social attention.Based on a new Keynes DSGE model with the financial intermediary sector, the paper quantitively describes the influence mechanism of financial frictions on China′s business cycle fluctuations in New Normal.Research finds financial frictions could accelerate and amplify financial shocks through the balance sheet channel, and financial friction coefficient is inversely related to the business fluctuation multiplier effect;the capital quality shock has a long-term impact on business cycle fluctuations,but the monetary policy is only available in the short-term, which suggest that as long as the financial frictions exist, the monetary policy would have less effects on financial shocks.Relevant departments should not only depend on monetary policy for short-term regulation, but also focus on the characteristics of China capital market development and improve its management to maximize the role of virtual economy in optimizing the allocation of resources, and thus promote the recovery of real economy.%美国次贷危机过后,金融摩擦在经济增长和经济周期波动中的作用引起社会高度重视.本文利用带有金融中介部门的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,定量刻画中国经济新常态下金融摩擦对经济周期波动的影响机制.研究发现,金融摩擦将通过资产负债表渠道加速和放大金融冲击,金融摩擦系数与经济波动乘数效应呈反向依存关系;资本质量冲击对经济周期波动的影响具有记忆性,而货币政策调控仅在短期内有效.在金融摩擦存在的情况下,这说明货币政策对金融冲击的调整将面临着周期匹配失调的约束,有关部门不仅要采用货币政策进行短期调控,还应高度重视中国资本市场发展的阶段性特征,加强资本质量管理,在最大程度发挥虚拟经济的资源优化配置作用,进而带动实体经济复苏.
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