本文构建了小型开放经济下多部门动态随机一般均衡模型，通过分析进口占比和国内外产品替代弹性的动态变化来研究贸易调整时期宏观经济的动态调整机制。数值模拟结果表明，贸易调整的策略和路径对不同冲击下经济运行的影响存在差异；国内经济冲击下的贸易调整会对经济稳态产生影响，国外经济冲击下的贸易调整对国内经济长期运行影响不显著，但是会影响短期经济调整；进口占比主要影响消费、资本、投资和实际汇率，国内外产品替代弹性则主要影响资本、经常账户和实际汇率。%This paper constructs a multi-sector open economy DSGE model to analyze the dynamic transmission mechanism in the “New Normal”considering the dynamic variables of the share on import-vis-export ratio and the foreign-vis-domestic product substitution ratio simultaneously.The simulation results can be summarized at least three manifolds. Firstly,the results demonstrate that different trade adjustment strategies and paths would affect the economy built on different types of shocks.Secondly,during the trade adjustment period,domestic shocks would affect the stability of the economy,while foreign shocks would affect the domestic economy in a short-term run but show no effect in the long-term run.Thirdly,the share of import would mainly affect consumption,investment,capital and real exchange rate,while foreign-vis-domestic product substitution elasticity would affect capital,current account and real exchange rate significantly.
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