The paper estimated the size of the shadow bank from the perspective of credit demand by selecting annual da -ta from 1987 to 2012;we constructed index BSSI to monitor the Chinese banking system′s impact resistance and stability based on the leading indicators of the banking crisis; it simulated the data, and constructed model to do empirical re-search between them, drawing that the development of the shadow bank has had a dual impact on the stability of the banking system.%本文选取1987-2012年的年度数据，从信贷需求的角度估测我国影子银行的规模；以银行危机先行指标为基础，构建银行稳定性指标BSSI 来监控中国银行体系的抗冲击能力和稳定程度；模拟数据构造模型实证研究二者关系，得出影子银行发展对银行体系稳定性双重影响的结论。
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