Campus BBS is the main carrier of college networks public opinion, it reflects the tendency of college students' public opinions as well as various aspects of their life, the empirical study on college BBS has important significance. How to efficiently predict the hot degree of the posts is the base of the discovery of unexpected networks public opinion, and is of significant to the study of networks public opinions. In this paper, we take the actual data of a university BBS as the research object, and make in-depth analysis on the posts and the users. We then put forward a prediction model for hot college BBS posts which is based on user behaviour. Through the experimental analysis, this method is proved to be able to well predict the hot BBS posts.%校园BBS是高校网络舆论的主要载体,反应了大学生的舆论倾向以及生活的各个方面,高校BBS的实证研究具有重要的意义.如何高效地对帖子的热度进行预测是发现突发网络舆情的基础,对网络舆情的研究具有重要的意义.以一高校BBS实际的数据为研究对象,对帖子和用户进行深入分析,提出一种基于用户行为的高校BBS热帖预测模型,通过实验分析,该方法可以对论坛中的热帖进行较好的预测.
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