首页> 中文期刊> 《计算机集成制造系统》 >随机环境下考虑需求替代的闭环供应链决策模型

随机环境下考虑需求替代的闭环供应链决策模型

         

摘要

针对大多数闭环供应链的利润分配研究仅考虑确定性需求和单周期环境的局限性,提出了随机环境下考虑需求预测更新、新产品与再制造产品替代关系的两周期闭环供应链决策模型。在两种决策结构(分散式决策、集中式决策)与两种替代关系(两种产品无替代、存在单向替代)下建立了4个优化模型,提出了各模型中制造商的最优批发价格、新产品的最优可再制造水平、零售商的最优订货量和双方利润的求解算法,进而推导了各种情形下均衡解的数量关系。针对需求相关系数对订货量、系统利润的影响进行了灵敏度分析。结果表明,无论是在集中式决策还是分散式决策下,当两种产品存在单向替代时,第二周期的新产品期望订货量均比无替代时高;产品的单向替代和需求预测更新均可提高系统的总利润,然而从渠道成员的角度出发,仅有制造商的利润增加,零售商的利润反而有所降低。此时双方可通过共享增加的收益部分,来提高零售商的积极性。%Aiming at the profit distribution research of most closed-loop supply chain only considering the deterministic demand and single-period environment limitations,a decision model of two-period closed-loop supply chain considering demand forecast update and substitution relationship between new products and remanufactured products was studied under stochastic environment.Four optimization models were constructed under two decision strategies(decentralized decision,centralized decision) and two substitution relationships(no substitution,one-way substitution).The algorithms of obtaining optimal wholesale price of manufacturers,optimal remanufacturing level of new product,optimal ordering quantities of retailers and profits for each party in the models were proposed.Moreover,quantitative relationships of the equilibrium solutions under different circumstances were derived.Aiming at the impact of demand correlation coefficient on ordering quantity and system profit,a sensitivity analysis was conducted.The results indicated that under both decision strategies,the expected ordering quantity in the second period with one-way substitution was higher than with no substitution.Both one-way substitution and demand forecast update led to improve system total profits.However,from the perspective of channel members merely the manufacturer's profit increased,the retailer's profit decreased instead.Therefore the manufacturer and the retailer could share the increased profits to raise the retailer's enthusiasm.

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