The alkali/surfactant/polymer (ASP) flooding is one of main methods of enhanced oil recovery, the ASP flooding slug parameters as main influence factors of the recovery need be further studied. In this paper, taking a test zone as an example, the scheme was designed by the method of orthogonal design, and numerical simulation calculation was carried out. By adopting the method of grey correlation and multiple regression analysis method, it is concluded that, the main slug dosage, polymer concentration, surfactant concentration and auxiliary slug dosage are the main factors influencing the recovery. Combined with the above parameters, water cut was predicted, and the prediction formula that can meet the needs of the scene was obtained.%三元复合驱是油田提高采收率的主要方式之一，但是三元复合驱的段塞参数哪些是影响采收率的重要因素，有待于进一步研究。以北一区断东西部试验区为例，通过正交设计方法设计方案，进行数值模拟计算，采用灰色关联方法和多元回归方法分析得出主段塞用量、聚合物浓度、表活剂浓度和副段塞用量、聚合物浓度为影响采收率的主要因素，并结合这些参数进行含水规律预测，得到的含水规律预测公式精度较高，满足现场需要。
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