着眼于珠三角地区生态环境问题,进行城市群生态安全评价及预测研究,以掌握珠三角城市群生态安全时空分异,为地区生态安全维护与管理决策提供参考.基于PSR模型,从资源、环境、人口和社会经济等方面选取15个指标,构建珠三角城市群生态安全评价指标体系;利用加权平均法对珠三角各市及城市群1978—2015年的生态安全状况进行综合评价;采用回归分析方法构建预测模型,对珠三角城市群未来7年生态安全水平进行预测.结果表明,(1)区域内生态安全呈现出东、西和中部的分异,中部明显低于东、西部.(2)珠三角城市群生态安全呈现逐渐下滑态势,较严重的是广州、深圳和珠海市,评价值基本在0.39~0.72之间,处于较安全向不安全等级变化,广州以2008年和2012年为临界点;其余城市(区域)则由较安全下滑至临界安全;未来7年内生态安全趋势不容乐观.(3)惠州和江门市的生态安全曲线波动频繁,在0.43~0.76之间,但变化幅度居中.(4)各城市生态系统子系统承受的压力、做出的响应以及呈现的状态各具特色.未来珠三角各市需因地制宜地采取环境整治措施,以促进城市群朝着可持续方向发展.%This study focus on the ecological security assessment and prediction of urban agglomerations in Pearl River Delta originated from the prominent ecological and environmental issues in this area, so as to understand the spatial and temporal differentiation of ecological security and provide reference for regional ecological security maintenance and managerial decisions. Based on the PSR model, fifteen indicators from the resources, environment, population, social economy, and so on, were selected to establish the evaluation system of ecological security for urban agglomeration in Pearl River Delta. The weighted average method was implemented to evaluate the ecological security status of cities and urban agglomerations in Pearl River Delta from 1978 to 2015. The regression analysis method was implemented to construct the forecast model in order to forecast the ecological security level of the Pearl River Delta city group in the next 7 years. The results showed that, (1) The regional ecological security showed difference in the east, west and central. The central was significantly lower than the east and west. (2) Ecological security in the urban agglomeration in Pearl River Delta was gradually declining. Some cities were in serious status including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhuhai which were in the relative safe or unsafe level, the evaluation value ranged basically from 0.39 to 0.72. Two critical points were observed in 2008 and 2012 in Guangzhou. The safety level of other cities and regions was observed declining from relative safe to the critical one. The ecological security would not be optimistic in the next seven years. (3) The ecological security curve of Huizhou and Jiangmen frequently fluctuated while the amplitude of change was moderate with the value ranging from 0.43 to 0.76. (4) The subsystems of the ecosystem of each city under the pressure, in the response as well as of the status, were distinctive. In the future, it is necessary that the cities in Pearl River Delta should adopt environmental regulation measures according to the local conditions, to promote the urban agglomerations toward sustainable development.
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