低碳城市发展是实现国家可持续发展战略的重要手段,是促进自然生态、经济低碳和社会幸福的城市发展新模式.如何有效选取城市低碳指标,探讨城市发展中经济、社会和环境演进中的低碳指标变化特征是指导建设可持续发展城市的必要条件.为了明确广州低碳建设在城市综合发展进程中的地位,实现低碳城市可持续发展新模式,文章以可持续发展理论为基础,以广州2000—2015年期间城市发展数据为研究对象,构建了基于基本城市发展层面和低碳城市发展层面的35项评价指标,运用熵值法对城市发展进程中的经济发展、社会进步和环境质量演变的基本发展指标和低碳指标进行综合分析.结果显示,(1)广州城市经济发展对城市综合发展指数贡献率为25.63%,经济发展在整个城市可持续发展进程中的优先度有所降低,低碳经济发展远落后于整体经济发展态势.(2)社会进步对城市综合发展指数贡献率高达42.27%,表明广州城市发展进程中,在追求经济高速发展的同时,更注重社会民生的进步.低碳社会进步指数呈较稳定的增长态势.(3)城市环境质量对城市综合发展指数贡献为32.10%,低碳环境质量指数16年来增长缓慢.(4)在2000—2015年期间,广州经济高速发展的同时,社会进步同步发展,环境质量指数波动较大,但后期发展良好,综合发展指数稳步增长,但低碳综合发展指数所占比例较低,低碳城市发展空间很大.%Low-carbon city development is an important mean to establish sustainable development strategy, and is a new development model of the natural ecology, low-carbon economy and social happiness. How to effectively choose low carbon indexes is of necessary to discuss the variation characteristics of low carbon index during the development process of city economic, social and environmental evolution. The present study constructed 35 evaluation indexes by utilizing the urban development data of Guangzhou (2000—2015) based on the theory of sustainable development for establishing the position of low carbon during the process of urban comprehensive development, and realizing the new development pattern of low carbon urban. These indexes included the basic urban development level indexes and the low carbon city development level indexes. The entropy was used to discuss the basic development index and low carbon index of economic development, social progress and environmental quality evolution of Guangzhou city during this period. Our results indicated that, the contribution rate of the economic development to the comprehensive development was 25.63%, economic development priorities was reduced in this period, and the low carbon economy development lagged behind the overall economic development situation. The contribution rate of social progress was up to 42.27% to urban comprehensive development index, suggesting the local government paid more attention to the social progress with the high-speed economic development, and low carbon social progress index showed a steady growth trend. The contribution rate of urban environmental quality to urban comprehensive development index was 32.10%, the low carbon environmental quality index was growing slowly in this period. And in the study period, with the high-speed development of economy and the progress of social, environmental quality index had a large fluctuation. The urban general development level kept an increasing tendency, but the contribution of low carbon comprehensive development index to the comprehensive development index was low. There is a significant development potential for low carbon city.
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