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近50年淮河流域气候变化时空特征分析

         

摘要

在全球气候变化的背景下,流域水资源、农业和生态环境将对气候变化有不同程度的响应,研究淮河流域气候变化趋势和空间特征,将有益于制定应对气候变化的策略。利用1961─2010年淮河流域145个地面气象站观测资料,对近50年以来淮河流域常规气象要素的时间和空间特征进行分析,得出以下结论,(1)全流域年平均气温表现出升高的趋势,年平均气温变化有显著的空间差异性,南四湖地区、淮河干流中下游以南以及伏牛山区,为气温显著上升区;山区最高气温上升缓慢,而最低气温上升明显;全流域平均气温日较差有下降的趋势,气温日较差的空间变化呈现出流域中部平原区减小而其他地区增加的分布特征。(2)全流域地面气压呈降低趋势,空间差异性增大,淮河流域广大平原为降低速率慢的区域,上游桐柏山区和大别山区则为降低速率快的中心;风速的变化及其空间差异性总体上均呈减小趋势,但在淮干上游山区、沂蒙山区以及里下河沿海地区地面风速有增大的趋势。(3)流域西部相对湿度呈微弱增大的趋势,而流域东部呈微弱减小的趋势;日照时数逐年递减的趋势比较明显,空间上呈现流域西部递减的趋势比东部明显。(4)年均降水量以淮河干流为界,呈现南部增多,北部减少的特征,导致流域年平均降水量南多北少的空间分布差异呈增大趋势。%Water resources, agriculture and ecological environment of river basins are affected by global climate change to different degrees. Knowledge of the trends and spatial patterns of climate change in the Huaihe River Basin is beneficial to the formulation of the basin’s climate change response strategies. The spatial-temporal patterns of several key climatic factors are analyzed based on historical observations at 145 meteorological stations between 1961 and 2010 in the Huaihe River Basin. Study results suggest that, (1) There is an increasing trend in the annual average temperature of the entire basin. However, there is much spatial variability in its change. Regions with significant increase in temperature include the Nansihu region, the southern region of the Middle and Lower Huaihe River Basin, and the Funiu Mountain region. Annual maximum temperature increases slowly in the mountainous regions, while annual minimum temperature increased significantly in the regions. Annual average daily temperature range of the entire basin shows a decreasing trend. Spatially, it shows a decreasing trend in the central plains and an increasing trend in the rest areas. (2) Surface air pressure shows a decreasing trend in the entire basin with increasing spatial variability. Its central plains exhibit a slow rate of decrease, while the Tongbai and Dabie Mountain regions in the upstream exhibit a fast rate As a whole average wind speed of the entire basin shows a decreasing trend as well as its spatial variability. However, wind speed shows an increasing trend in the mountainous regions of the Upper Huaihe River Basin, the Yimeng Mountains, and the coastal Lixiahe region. (3) Relative humidity shows a weak increasing trend in the western region in contrast to a weak decreasing trend in the east. There is a significant decreasing trend in sunshine duration with more decrease in the west than in the east. (4) Annual average precipitation shows a trend of increase to the south of the main reach of the Huaihe River and decrease to the north. This leads to a further increase in the spatial variability of annual precipitation between the wet south and the dry north.

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