首页> 中文期刊> 《生态环境学报》 >基于EKC模型的经济增长与城市土地生态安全关系研究

基于EKC模型的经济增长与城市土地生态安全关系研究

         

摘要

The purpose of this study is to do a comparative study of relationship between land ecological security value and economic growth in six cities based on the model of the EKC curve. Case cities were studied by using land ecological security evaluation index system which has the common logic basis and comparability. Urban economic growth is reflected by urban per capita GDP indicator. Methods of standardized processing and fitting analysis were employed to examine correlations of land ecological security and economic development. The results indicate that in the study period, urban land ecological security values were increased gradually with economic development, and cubic polynomial was supposed to be the best fitting function. The comprehensive variation of all cities presented a logarithmic relation. Linear fitting for urban land ecological security values was carried out, showing that all cities increased monotonically in research interval. Quadratic polynomial fitting presented two types of function;some cities were in a monotone increasing interval, and some tended to increase first and then decrease. Cubic polynomial developed three kinds of states:some cites increased monotonically, Xi’an at first increased and then decreased, and Harbin, however, performed a completely opposite situation. The comprehensive variation of all cities displayed a monotone increasing state. The conclusion showed that with the improvement of economic development, land ecological security value were continuously growing and tended to be smooth dynamic pattern, whereas neither satisfied the EKC classic inverted U-shaped model. Technological progress, economic structure change and demand for environmental services were the main contributing factors affecting the relationship of economic development and land ecological security.%  基于EKC模型,研究城市经济增长与城市土地生态安全之间的相关关系,分析城市土地生态安全动态变化成因,并为土地生态安全管理提供建议。研究选取6个案例城市,均采用土地生态安全评价指标体系方法进行生态安全评价,具有共通的逻辑基础和一定的可比性。城市经济增长用城市人均GDP指标反映,通过将案例城市土地生态安全值进行标准化处理,选用多种函数拟合分析了城市的土地生态安全值与城市人均GDP变化的相关性。结果显示,在研究时段内,城市土地生态安全值随着城市的经济增长而逐渐升高,城市的经济增长与土地生态安全呈现正相关的关系,三次多项式为最佳拟合函数,所有城市综合变化规律呈对数相关关系。线性拟合显示所有城市在研究区间内均表现出单调上升的状态,即随着经济的增长,城市的土地安全值升高;二次多项式的拟合表现出两种类型,部分城市处于函数单调上升区间,同时部分城市是先递增后递减即出现极大值拐点。三次多项式拟合结果则存在3种状态:部分城市表现为单调递增的状态;西安的拟合结果是先递增后递减出现峰值;哈尔滨则呈现先递减再递增的低谷。综合结果的所有拟合曲线均显示为单调递增状态。随着经济增长,土地生态安全值不断增长进而趋于平稳的动态格局,但二者不满足EKC的经典倒U型模型关系。经济水平发展带来的技术进步、产业经济结构变化及人们对环境服务的需求等3方面因素是经济增长与土地生态安全水平之间指数相互关系的主要成因。

著录项

相似文献

  • 中文文献
  • 外文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号