分析1978年以来中国电力弹性系数的变化情况,总结电力弹性系数短期波动的主要原因,提炼电力弹性系数波动的长期规律;对比典型发达国家电力弹性系数的变化经验,提出在经济转型时期应用电力弹性系数的方法,对中国“十三五”、“十四五”、“十五五”电力需求预测结果进行校核.%Based on an analysis of the variation of China's electricity elasticity coefficient since 1978,this paper elaborates the reasons for the large variation of China's electricity elasticity coefficient in the short term,and finds out the long-term pattern of the variation.Through comparison with the developed countries' experience in electricity elasticity coefficient variation,a method is proposed for the application of electricity elasticity coefficient during economic transition period,and a check is made on the power demand forecasting for the 13th,14th and 15th Five-Year Periods (2016-2020,2021-2025 and 2026-2030,respectively).
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