Reasonable and comprehensive water quality assessment of Yangtze River estuary has important scientific significance and application value. For Yangtze River estuary, from the monitoring data collected in May and August at 5 different regions, six pollution factors were chosen as parameters, based on comprehensive water quality assessment which was conducted with fuzzy probability comprehensive evaluation mathematical model. The results show that: The fuzzy probability of seawater quality belonging to the fourth class is sorted from south port>north slot>south slot>north port>Outside, the probability is 86. 2%. Yangtze River estuary water quality in August is slightly better than in May, inside water quality is better than outside.%对长江口水质进行合理的综合评价具有重要的科学意义和应用价值。本文根据长江口2012年5月和8月的监测数据，在长江口5个不同区域，选择6个污染因子为参数，采用模糊概率综合评价数学模型对长江口水质进行评价与分析。结果表明：属于第四类海水水质模糊概率由大到小排序为南港＞北槽＞南槽＞北港＞口外，概率为86．2％，8月长江口水质要略好于5月，长江口内水质好于口外。
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