Based on the data from 1965 to 2015,this paper analyzed the existence and variation tendency of carbon emissions EKC inflection point using variable parameter model.The results showed that the variation relationship between carbon emissions and per capita GDP could be divided into two stages:there was no EKC curve and inflection point during 1970 to 1989,while it showed typical inverted "U" type EKC curve and inflection point during 1990 to 2015.According to economic growth,carbon emissions EKC inflection point showed advanced trend in general.According to the data of 2015,it need about 79 years to arrive at the carbon emissions EKC inflection point.When carbon emissions intensity dropped,the carbon emissions EKC inflection point could arrive ahead of time obviously.If carbon intensity decreased by 3％ annually,the EKC inflection point could arrive 24 years ahead of time.If carbon intensity decreased by 5％ annually,the EKC inflection point could arrive 33 years ahead of time.%基于1965-2015年数据,利用变参数模型,对中国碳排放EKC拐点的存在性及变化趋势进行实证分析.结果表明:碳排放与人均实际GDP之间的关系可分为2个阶段,1970-1989年不存在EKC曲线和拐点,而1990-2015年存在典型的倒“U”型EKC曲线和拐点.随着经济增长,碳排放EKC拐点总体呈现提前的趋势,根据2015年数据计算,到达碳排放EKC拐点要79年左右.碳排放强度下降能使碳排放EKC拐点大幅度提前,如碳排放强度年均下降3％,可使碳排放EKC拐点提前24年左右;如碳排放强度年均下降5％,则可使碳排放EKC拐点提前33年左右.
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