Gray prediction method and exponential smoothing and MATLAB software were adopted in the paper,the number of deaths in Bavaria safety trends was analyzed quantitatively.According to forecasts,in Bavaria from 2010 to 2015,production safety accidents absolute number of deaths decreased slowly,but the relative index dropped significantly.%文章采用灰色预测法和指数平滑法并借助MATLAB软件,定量分析了巴州安全生产死亡人数发展趋势。根据预测显示,巴州2010~2015年安全生产事故绝对死亡人数的呈缓慢下降趋势,但相对指标大幅下降。
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