Under the background of the 21st century“maritime silk road”,this paper firstly analyzes the present situation of Sino-ASEAN agricultural products trade,Malaysia,Vietnam,Singapore and Indonesia are China’s important trading partners in the ASEAN. Taking the agricultural products export as the explained variable , selecting the mixed effect model as the most suitable for the panel data of gravity model,we compute the ASEAN’s agricultural product trade efficiency;Then made the residual error of the model as the explained variable,we establish trade inefficiency model,and it is concluded that tariff barriers,technical barriers to trade can bring negative effect to agricultural product export potential,the inhibitory effect of tariff barriers to agricultural products export potential is greater than the technical barriers to trade,the establishment of a free trade area will enhance our country agricultural product export potential. Finally,the paper give some suggestions.%在“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的背景下，先对中国—东盟农产品贸易现状进行分析，得出马来西亚、越南、新加坡、印度尼西亚是我国在东盟的重要贸易伙伴国。以农产品出口为被解释变量，选择混合效应模型作为最适合的面板数据引力模型，比较出东盟十国的农产品贸易效率；接着将前述模型的残差作为被解释变量，建立贸易非效率模型，得出关税壁垒，技术性贸易壁垒会给农产品出口潜力带来消极影响，其中关税壁垒对农产品出口潜力的抑制作用大于技术性贸易壁垒，自由贸易区的建立会提升我国农产品出口潜力。最后提出相关建议。
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