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郑州市生态环境脆弱性演变及驱动力分析

         

摘要

Proceeded from the multi-factor and angle that affected the vulnerability of ecological environment ,the comprehensive vulnerability of ecological environment in Zhengzhou during 1990 to 2013 was analyzed based on the entropy evaluation method,moreover,the driving forces of that were discussed by using the PCA(principal component analysis). The results showed as follows.(1)On the whole Zhengzhou ecological environment comprehensive vulnerability showed a slow downward trend from 1990 to 2013. Looked from the evolution process, that trend could be divided into two phases:wave decline stage from 1990 to 2002 and volatility rising stage from 2003 to 2013;(2)From the system data,there existed great differences between the three subsystems,among them the pressure index and fragile ecological environment bearing capacity index showed a trend of volatility ,while the fragile ecological environment stress index showed a trend of sustained and rapid decline;(3)Through analyzing the selected 13 factors by using PCA,all the indexes passed inspection. The results showed that the economic development and urbanization development factors were the main driving forces of Zhengzhou ecological environment comprehensive vulnerability.%从影响生态环境脆弱性的多因素多角度出发,基于熵值法对郑州市1990—2013年生态环境综合脆弱性进行分析,并运用主成分分析法探讨了1990—2013年生态环境综合脆弱性的驱动力.结果表明:①郑州市1990—2013年生态环境综合脆弱性总体上呈波动缓慢下降趋势,从演变过程看,可以分为波动下降阶段(1990—2002)和波动上升阶段(2003—2013).②从系统层指标来看,子系统指标之间存在着较大的差异,其中,生态环境压力指数和生态环境承载力脆弱性指数呈波动上升趋势,而生态环境抗压力脆弱性指数呈持续快速下降趋势.③将选取的13个因子进行主成分分析,各项指标均通过检验.结果表明,经济发展因素和城镇化发展因素是郑州市生态环境综合脆弱性的主要驱动力.

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