Collapse prevention is the construction of the tunnel technical difficult problem.In this paper,the trial of catastrophe theory to the possibility of tunnel excavation collapse prediction.Combined with the Xiangmiao tunnel as an example for analysis,and achieved good results.The predicted results show that,in the case of surrounding rock for the bare rock,there are landslides may.Need to take pre support and temporary support means,reasonable arrangement of control excavation step excavation se-quence,followed by the two,in the lining under the premise,strengthen monitoring and information feed-back,in order to ensure the safety of tunnel construction.%塌方预防是隧道施工的一道技术难题。试用突变理论对隧道洞口开挖发生塌方的可能性进行预测。以响米坳隧道为依托，预测结果表明，在围岩为裸岩的情况下，存在塌方的可能。需要采取预支护和临时支护手段，合理安排开挖顺序、控制开挖步距，在二衬紧跟的前提下，加强监控量和信息反馈，才能确保隧道的施工安全。
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