Objective To investigate the application of X-11 method for predicting outpatient quantity of nephrology department in a hospital.Methods Outpatient quantities of nephrology department were collected quarterly from 2012 to 2014.X-11 method was used to analyze data by the X11 process of SAS 9.1.3 software. By separating the seasonal factor, the authors explored the relationship between the time trend and the trend fitted values, then imitate a regression equation to predict outpatients each quarter in 2015.Results Trend curve exis-ted between the trend fitted value and the time.The forecasting model was Tt =15 600+ 5 0001+e4.94-0.82t .The outpa-tients of each quarter in 2015 were 20 471,21 636,21 329,18 933.Conclusion X-11 method could separate the seasonal factors from original series, and help finding the time series trend.%目的：探讨X－11方法在某医院肾脏病科门诊量统计预测中的应用。方法收集某院2012—2014年各季度门诊量，利用SAS 9．1．3软件的X11过程，运用X－11方法对数据进行分析，分离季节因子，探索趋势拟合值与时间之间的关系，拟合回归方程，预测2015年一至四季度的门诊量。结果发现趋势拟合值与时间之间存在曲线关系，预测模型为Tt ＝15600＋50001＋e4．94－0．82t ，2015年一至四季度的门诊量分别为20471、21636、21329、18933。结论 X－11方法能够将季节因素分离，发现不同时间数据序列的趋势，因此预测结果值得应用。
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