[目的]了解物理量场预报资料在降水预报中的作用.[方法]通过对比烟台2011年7月2～3日降水预报与降水实况及2011年9月12～15日连续强降水预报与实况,比较日本传真图、欧洲中心、MM5、Grapes、T639等数值预报模式的优缺点.[结果]MICAPS系统可以提供物理量场的实况形势,却不能提供物理量场的未来演变形势,日本传真图、欧洲中心、MM5、Grapes、T639等数值预报模式,可提供物理量场的未来演变形势.[结论]对多次降水过程物理量场的预报形势的对比分析表明,不同高度的垂直速度、温度露点差、相对湿度以及风场演变,能提高烟台降水预报准确率.%[ Objective]The research aimed to understand the role of the physical quantity field forecast data in rainfall forecast. [ Method] By comparing rainfall forecast and actual rainfall from July 2 to 3rd,2011 with that from September 12 to 15th,2011 in Yantai,the advantages and disadvantages of different numerical forecast models ( Japan fax chart, European center, MM5, Grapes and T639 ) were contrasted. [ Result ] MICAPS system could provide the live physical quantity field situation, but not the future evolution situation. Fax image of Japan, European center, MM5, Grapes and T639 could provide the future evolution situation of the physical quantity field. [Conclusion] The contrast analyses on prediction situations of the physical quantity fields of many precipitation processes showed that the vertical velocity, depression of the dew point,relative humidity and wind field evolution at the different heights could improve the forecast accuracy of the precipitation in Yantai.
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